CANDIDATE BIDEN SAID PRESIDENT BIDEN UNWORTHY TO REMAIN IN OFFICE (Washington Examiner)
“One year ago in October, [Candidate] Biden stated , ‘220,000
Americans dead. If you hear nothing else I say tonight, hear this: Anyone
responsible for that many deaths should not remain as president of the United
States of America.’ In just under nine months in office, 300,000 people have
died from COVID-19 under Biden’s watch...If we accept Biden at this own word,
then he is not qualified to be president any longer. On his own terms, he
should resign immediately.” Story at...
My cmt: I know I shouldn’t do Politics here, but I got so
much crap on Facebook (from former friends) blaming Trump for Covid deaths that
I couldn’t resist posting this. There were plenty of reasons to dislike Trump,
but Covid deaths? Come on man.
I won’t pollute Facebook with political junk so you’re
stuck with it here. BTW, my readership is down by half – I assume the Trumpers
stopped reading because I refused to accept Trump’s stolen election lies. This
will tick off the other half. I’m headed for a readership of one – me!
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (YahooFinance)
“U.S. employers unexpectedly hired at a slower pace in
September than in August, with labor supply shortages and virus-related impacts
still exerting considerable pressure on the economic recovery...
-Change in non-farm payrolls, September: +194,000 vs.
+500,000 expected and a revised +366,000 in August.
-Unemployment rate: 4.8% vs. 5.1%
expected, 5.2% in August.” Story at...
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 8:00 PM Friday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers
are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in
Green. I added the smoothed 10-dMA of new cases (in purple) to the chart.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.2% to 4391.
-VIX fell about 4% to 18.77.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.613%.
PULLBACK DATA
Days since Top: 28 days; Average correction length for
corrections <10% = 33
Drop from the Top: 5.2% max; 3.2% at today’s close.
Average total correction decline (top to bottom) over the last 10-years = 13%,
ignoring major crashes.
The Friday run-down of some important indicators flipped
to the bull side (6-bear and 9-bull). These indicators tend to be both
long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on
daily. Details follow:
BULL SIGNS
-Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) are outperforming the
S&P 500.
-The 100-dMA % of issues advancing on the NYSE
(Breadth) is above 50%.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE
(breadth) made a bullish crossover 23 September.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover, 8
October, but just barely.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-My Money Trend indicator.
-The Smart Money (late-day action) indicates the Pros are
bullish. (This indicator is based on the Smart Money Indicator developed by Don
Hayes).
-Short-term new-high/new-low data is trending higher.
-The S&P 500 is out-performing the Utilities ETF
(XLU).
NEUTRAL
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 28 September. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive
afterward, so the Omen has been cancelled.
-Distribution Days.
There have been 5 in the last 25-days, not enough to send a signal.
-There have been 3 Statistically-Significant days in the
last 15-days – too low to send a signal. This can be a bull or bear.
-Bollinger Bands
-RSI.
-Breadth on the NYSE compared to the S&P 500 index is
neutral.
-The size of up-moves has been smaller than the size of
down-moves over the last month, but not enough to give a signal.
-The S&P 500 is 5.7% above its 200-dMA (Bear
indicator is 12%.). This value was 15.9% above the 200-dMA when the 10%
correction occurred in Sep 2020.
-Calm-before-the-Storm Indicator – expired.
-There was a Follow-thru day on 15 Sept. This cancels any prior Distribution days, but
the signal has expired.
-The Fosback High-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-There have been 9 up-days over the last 20 days. Neutral
-There have been 4 up-days over the last 10-days. Neutral
-7.7% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week
highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high 2 September. (There is no
bullish signal for this indicator.) This is above the average for all-time
highs and suggests that if we do have a pullback, it is likely to be less than
10%.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio) is
neutral.
-Statistically, the S&P 500 gave a panic-signal 17
Sept. Signal has expired.
-Non-crash Sentiment indicator remains neutral, but it is
very bullish and that means the signal is leaning bearish.
-7 October, the 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved
by 1.7 standard deviations, somewhat bullish, but neutral.
-VIX is rising, but not fast enough to send a signal.
-49% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the
last 10-days.
BEAR SIGNS
-The 10-dMA % of issues advancing on the NYSE
(Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 50-dMA % of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth)
is below 50%.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is down. This is one of
my favorite trend indicators.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is SELL; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA
are both below the 20-dEMA.
-Long-term new-high/new-lows are falling.
On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top of the
Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there
are 6 bear-signs and 9 bull-signs. Last week, there were 10 bear-signs and 6
bull-signs.
This week’s reading has switched to the bull side, but not
by much. There are only 3 more bull-signs than bear-signs and a lot of
indicators are neutral.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved -5 to +2 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -36 to -33 (These numbers
sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most
of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
In the end, Price is what really matters and the chart has not yet broken the down trend. If the S&P 500 can’t break above the
downward-sloping, upper trendline, I can’t be a buyer – unless we see a smoking
gun in the indicators. So far...no
smoking gun – perhaps Monday.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals improved to NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following
analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term
trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now about 45% invested in stocks; this is below my “normal” fully
invested allocation of 50%.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
