“People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It
is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders
of magnitude.” – Michael “Big Short” Burry.
PPI (Advisor Perspectives)
“This morning's release of the September Producer Price
Index (PPI) for Finished Goods was at 0.5%
month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 0.6% increase last month. It
is at 8.6% year-over-year, up from 8.3% last month, on a non-seasonally
adjusted basis.”
Charts and commentary at...
JOBLESS CLAIMS (YahooFinance)
“U.S. states posted a much larger-than-expected drop in
initial unemployment claims last week, bringing the number of those newly
unemployed back toward their pre-virus pace...Initial unemployment claims, week ended October
9: 293,000 vs. 320,000 expected...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-jobless-claims-week-ended-october-180735901.html
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in
the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 6.1 million barrels from the
previous week. At 427.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
6% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
****OFF TOPIC 2020
ELECTION STUFF****
TRUMP SAYS REPUBLICANS WON’T VOTE IN 2022/2024 (Newsweek)
“Former President
Donald Trump believes Republicans will sit out the 2022 midterms and the 2024
presidential election, of which he may be a contender, if the fraud he believes
occurred during the 2020 election isn't "solved." Story at...
Trump
Says Republicans Won't Vote in Midterms, 2024 Election if 2020 Fraud Isn't
'Solved' (msn.com)
My cmt: OK, let’s review where Trump lost. Here are the
states that went to Trump in 2016, but flipped to Biden in 2020. After each
state, I’ve shown the associated Electoral votes.
Wisconsin, 10
Arizona, 11
Georgia, 16
Michigan, 16
Pennsylvania, 20
To have won, Trump needed to win states that he lost as
follows: 3 States with Pennsylvania or 4 States without Pennsylvania. Was there
fraud? Did Trump lose? Let’s look at the status of voting audits:
1.Wisconsin:
“...Recounts that Trump sought in Milwaukee and Dane
counties yielded additional votes for Biden, slightly widening his
margin. Trump and his allies turned to the courts, which issued eight rulings
against them over 12 days in December. Among those ruling against Trump’s side
were the U.S. Supreme Court, the state Supreme Court and a federal judge appointed by Trump.”
2.Arizona:
“...the GOP state Senate launched an “audit” by hiring
Cyber Ninjas...[their]...hand recount of Maricopa County’s 2.1 million ballots
says that Mr. Biden won the state by 10,817 votes [slightly more than the
original official count]...
3.Georgia:
“...a recount requested by President Donald Trump
confirmed once again that Democrat Joe Biden won the state, and the [Republican]
governor then recertified the state’s 16 presidential electors. “We have now
counted legally cast ballots three times, and the results remain
unchanged,” [said Republican] Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger...
4.Michigan:
From the official Republican report on the election:
“This Committee found no evidence of widespread or systematic fraud in
Michigan’s prosecution of the 2020 election.” Report at...
5.Pennsylvania
“Multiple official audits and court proceedings have
uncovered no proof of widespread fraud in Pennsylvania, a state Joe Biden won
by more than 80,000 votes...Republicans in Pennsylvania have said that...[a
new]...inquiry will be funded by taxpayers, rather than conservative dark money
groups affiliated with Donald Trump.” Story at...
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/09/pennsylvania-gop-audit-trump-2020-loss.html
Pennsylvania is the one state where there were legitimate
questions - election officials allowed votes to be counted that did not meet
Pennsylvania State law (allowing mail in votes without excuse, fixing errors on
mail in ballots, etc.). This case went to the US Supreme Court. They refused to
hear the case because the number of votes in question would not have altered
the Pennsylvania outcome.
Trump – You lost and your continued lies amount to
sedition. If you were making these
claims in colonial times when John Adams was President, you would be in jail.
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website
as of 7:00 PM Thursday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily
numbers are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily
numbers in Green. I added the smoothed 10-dMA of new cases (in purple) to the
chart.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.7% to 4438.
-VIX dropped about 10% to 16.86.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.516%.
The S&P 500 was very strong today and shrugged off a
number of bearish signs. The Index broke
above its 100-dMA, its upper trend line and a late push sent the Index above
its 50-dMA!
Other indicators that we have been watching flipped as
well: The 50-dMA of % of stocks advancing on the NYSE moved above 50% along
with the 10-dMA and the S&P 500 outperformed Utilities today.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +2 to +9 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -26 to -7 (These numbers
sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most
of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble switched to BUY. VIX, and Volume were bullish; Price & Sentiment
indicators are neutral.
I am bullish. I should
say cautiously bullish. The inflation news looks bad to me, but it isn’t
bothering the market now, so I won’t let it bother me.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
Market Internals improved to BULLISH on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now about 50% invested in stocks; this is my “normal” fully
invested stock-allocation.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
