“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
KILMEADE CALLS TRUMP A LIAR (msn.com)
"Right now, nobody cares about 2020. Nobody. And
everything that he [Trump] said and the challenges that he made should've been
done before the election. And they did a recount in Arizona, and the recount
showed no difference almost, and he came out and said it showed that they won
Arizona. That's an outright lie...” – Brian Kilmead, Fox Radio Host and
political commentator. Story at...
Fox
News' Brian Kilmeade Slams Trump Over 'Outright Lie' About 2020 Election
(msn.com)
I happened to be listening Monday when Kilmeade made
these comments. No question, he called
Trump a liar on a nationally syndicated right-leaning radio program.
BUY THE DIP IN MARCH, NOT NOW (msn.com)
“Investors should hold off on buying the current decline
in stocks until after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike, according
to a Monday note from Bank of
America. The bank's technical analyst Stephen Suttmeier found that
stocks have a tendency to sell off in the months immediately after the initial
Fed rate hike before eventually moving higher...” Story at...
My cmt: Too late for me; I already bought the dip based
on my indicators – hope I’m right.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 4521.
-VIX declined about 6% to 21.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.964%.
Given that most corrections retest their prior lows, I’ll
keep the pullback stats for a while.
Pullback Data:
Days since top: 25 (Avg= 30 days for corrections <10%;
60 days for larger, non-crash pullbacks)
Drop from Top: Now 5.7%; Max closing: 9.8%; Max intraday:
12% (Avg.= 13% for non-crash pullbacks)
The S&P 500 is 1.7% above its 200-dMA & 2% below
its 50-dMA.
Max Retracement from bottom: 56% Wednesday.
The slope of the 200-dMA is up.
There was a nice positive move for the Indices today with
a reasonably strong close. We need to break above the recent high of 4589 on
the S&P 500 before we can feel a little more positive. The pullback won’t
really be over until the S&P 500 makes new highs.
There were 58 new-highs today vs 242 new-lows so this
stat is still going the wrong way. Breadth is looking up though; over the last
10-days, 50.3% of issues on the NYSE have been up. That’s the first time in
3-weeks that the 10-day % of issues advancing has been above 50%. On a longer,
100-day basis, the stats still look bad, but we’ll take what we can get. One
has to start somewhere so it is good to see the 10-day data improve.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +2 to +4 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +11 to +18 (The trend
direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late. Most of these indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a
lot.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained to HOLD. Volume is bullish; VIX, Price & Sentiment are
Neutral.
The S&P 500 remains below its 50-dMA. That will be a level of resistance.
We saw some improvement in internals today, but the
S&P 500 still needs to break back above its 50-dMA.
I remain cautiously bullish.
POSITIONS ADDED:
Wednesday, 26 January: AAPL; XLE;
Monday, 31 January: QLD; SPY
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is about 65% invested in stocks. This is above my “normal” fully
invested stock-allocation of 50%. I will hold this trading-position for a
while, but it will not be a long-term hold.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some suggest
that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s age
subtracted from 100. So, a 30-year-old
person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual funds and/or
stock ETFs. That’s ok, but for older
investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested in stocks
(as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in the
portfolio to keep up with inflation.
