Sunday, June 12, 2022

PPI Release is TUESDAY (not Monday)

 Here’s the consensus compiled by WSJ for the PPI release Tuesday, 0830.
Producer Price Index        May      +0.8% 
PPI ex food & energy        May      +0.6% 
 
The last PPI was lower on a year-over-year basis, but not month-to-month. That makes my previous commentary that we might expect good news Tuesday suspect.
 
As I noted yesterday, we can look at the most recent Manufacturing PMI report for clues regarding the PPI report. Last month’s manufacturing PMI stated “...raw materials prices increased for the 24th consecutive month, at a slower rate in May...Notably, 5.6 percent of respondents reported lower prices in May, indicating a slow but steady move towards price softening...”
 
If those trends continue, we could see a bounce Tuesday. Here's a chart of year-over-year PPI including last month's data point.

Chart from Briefing.com at...
https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic/display-article?ArticleId=ER20220614083000PPI&FileName=ppi.htm