“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
MARKIT COMPOSITE PMI (S&P Global)
“The headline S&P Global Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 53.5 in April, up from 52.3 in March, to signal the quickest upturn in business activity since May 2022. The increase in output was the third in as many months. The faster rise in activity was broad-based, with service sector firms registering the sharper rate of growth. Where a rise in activity was noted, firms linked this to greater customer confidence and a stronger uptick in new orders. Some companies also noted that an improvement in their ability to hire staff had boosted output.” Report at...
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/fc17fd9e64e74c93a6b5e41bc6773817
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4134.
-VIX slipped about 2% to 16.77.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.577%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.9% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 326-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – Boeing has more work than they can handle and are
hiring. They should do well going forward; however, Boeing was downgraded
4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to
meet demand. Thursday, 4/13/23, Boeing fell 5% after hours. “Boeing on Thursday
warned it will likely have to reduce deliveries of its 737 Max airplane in the
near term because of a problem with a part made by supplier Spirit AeroSystems.” From...
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not encouraging.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Yesterday, I posted a chart showing the rising triangle currently on the S&P 500 chart. The scales were a bit funky so here is a better chart. As noted, the pattern is generally a continuation pattern so, with luck, we may see the market break the upper trend line and accelerate higher. The pattern should break soon; then we’ll have a better idea of where the market is likely to go. The red and green circles are Statistically Significant days in my system.
BULL SIGNS
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 19 April.
-Slope of the 200-dMA is rising.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 21 March, although it is now close to a bearish reversal.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is bullish.
-On average, the size of up-moves has larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-VIX indicator.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both above the 20-dEMA.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term momentum is bullish.
NEUTRAL
-There were Distribution Days 12 & 20 April - not enough to send a signal.
-There have been 2 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-Bollinger Bands.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is flat.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 31 March. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator turned negative Friday, so this indicator has expired.
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 12 up-days over the last 20 sessions - neutral.
-RSI
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-There was a 90% down-volume day 9 March. Another one will push this into the Bear category.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-The S&P 500 is 4.4% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April 2022 – expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired
-54% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days – neutral.
BEAR SIGNS
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50%, for more than 3 days in a row – bearish.
-12 April there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is on the sell side and falling.
-My Money Trend indicator is falling.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is falling.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is underperforming the S&P 500.
-S&P 500 is underperforming Utilities (XLU-ETF).
On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top before the
Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there
are 11 bear-signs and 11-Bull. Last week, there were 12 bear-sign and 14
bull-signs.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) declined from +3 to -1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined
from +7 to +3. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based
on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT & VOLUME are neutral.
At this point, the Buy signal just means that the market is looking positive, so
it can indicate a Buy at tops. This indicator is designed to call turns in the
market.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I am a cautious Bull, watching indicators as
always.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“The headline S&P Global Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 53.5 in April, up from 52.3 in March, to signal the quickest upturn in business activity since May 2022. The increase in output was the third in as many months. The faster rise in activity was broad-based, with service sector firms registering the sharper rate of growth. Where a rise in activity was noted, firms linked this to greater customer confidence and a stronger uptick in new orders. Some companies also noted that an improvement in their ability to hire staff had boosted output.” Report at...
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/fc17fd9e64e74c93a6b5e41bc6773817
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4134.
-VIX slipped about 2% to 16.77.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.577%.
-Drop from Top: 13.9% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 326-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not encouraging.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
Yesterday, I posted a chart showing the rising triangle currently on the S&P 500 chart. The scales were a bit funky so here is a better chart. As noted, the pattern is generally a continuation pattern so, with luck, we may see the market break the upper trend line and accelerate higher. The pattern should break soon; then we’ll have a better idea of where the market is likely to go. The red and green circles are Statistically Significant days in my system.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 19 April.
-Slope of the 200-dMA is rising.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 21 March, although it is now close to a bearish reversal.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is bullish.
-On average, the size of up-moves has larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-VIX indicator.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both above the 20-dEMA.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term momentum is bullish.
-There were Distribution Days 12 & 20 April - not enough to send a signal.
-There have been 2 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-Bollinger Bands.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is flat.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 31 March. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator turned negative Friday, so this indicator has expired.
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 12 up-days over the last 20 sessions - neutral.
-RSI
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-There was a 90% down-volume day 9 March. Another one will push this into the Bear category.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-The S&P 500 is 4.4% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April 2022 – expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired
-54% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days – neutral.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50%, for more than 3 days in a row – bearish.
-12 April there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is on the sell side and falling.
-My Money Trend indicator is falling.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is falling.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is underperforming the S&P 500.
-S&P 500 is underperforming Utilities (XLU-ETF).
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
