PPI ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Forecasters said there is a 62% chance El Niño will take
over between May and July. The probability that El Niño will form by fall is
even higher, between 80% and 90%.” – Nexstar, WAVY-10 Norfolk.
My cmt: This is good news for the east coast since El
Nino suppresses Atlantic hurricanes.
PPI / CORE PPI (CNN)
"Core PPI, which excludes the more volatile components of
food and energy, declined 0.1% for the month and, for the 12 months ended in
March was up 3.4%, down from the upwardly revised level of 4.8%. Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/13/economy/ppi-inflation-march/index.html
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“U.S. applications for jobless benefits rose to their
highest level in more than a year, but remain at relatively low levels despite
efforts by the Federal Reserve to cool the economy and job market in its battle
against inflation. Jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending April 8 rose
by 11,000 to 239,000 from the previous week...” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-jobless-claim-applications-highest-year-98554418
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.3% to 4146.
-VIX fell about 7% to 17.8.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.447%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 14.3% as of today. 25.4% max (on a
closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 320-days.
The S&P 500 is 5% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.8% ABOVE
its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much
recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the
sector. We have a good dividend in the
meantime.
BA – Boeing has more work than they can handle and are
hiring. They should do well going forward; however, Boeing was downgraded
4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to
meet demand. Today, 4/13/23, Boeing fell 5% after hours. “Boeing on
Thursday warned it will likely have to reduce deliveries of its 737 Max
airplane in the near term because of a problem with a part made by
supplier Spirit AeroSystems.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/13/boeing-warns-of-reduced-737-max-production-and-deliveries-due-to-parts-issue.html
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not
encouraging.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for
me. I have no cash left.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Thursday was a statistically significant up-day. That
just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a
down-day about 60% of the time.
RSI is overbought today and that too, suggests a
down-day. Bollinger Bands were not overbought and there were no other top
indicators giving warnings, so it does not look like there is a serious downturn
starting.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) declined from +4 to zero (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined
from +47 to +39. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: VOLUME & PRICE are positive; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a Bull, but I’ll be watching
indicators as always. The Friday rundown
of indicators might be interesting.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
