“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
WATCHING PAINT DRY (Heritage Capital)
“I have argued strongly that a new bull market began in October 2022. And the VIX confirmed this in Q1. These bearish pundits hootin’ and hollerin’ about a VIX under 20 are barking up the wrong tree. It’s a good sign for the market, for now. There’s an old adage in that says to never short a dull market. I don’t know who to credit with that, but it makes sense. While I do see some cracks in the stock market right now, like a poorly performing banking sector and groups of stocks breaking down, the market has done an excellent job of internally rotating from index to index and sector to sector.” Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/like-watching-paint-dry-2/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4137.
-VIX rose about 1% to 16.89.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.489%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.7% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 327-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.5% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – Boeing has more work than they can handle and are
hiring. They should do well going forward; however, Boeing was downgraded
4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to
meet demand. Thursday, 4/13/23, Boeing fell 5% after hours. “Boeing on Thursday
warned it will likely have to reduce deliveries of its 737 Max airplane in the
near term because of a problem with a part made by supplier Spirit AeroSystems.” From...
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not encouraging.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Indicators were neutral Friday and there was nothing today to change a basically neutral view.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) improved from -1 to +1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined
from +3 to +0. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT & VOLUME are neutral.
At this point, the Buy signal just means that the market is looking positive,
so it can indicate a Buy at tops. This indicator is designed to call turns in
the market.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I am a cautious Bull, watching indicators as
always.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“I have argued strongly that a new bull market began in October 2022. And the VIX confirmed this in Q1. These bearish pundits hootin’ and hollerin’ about a VIX under 20 are barking up the wrong tree. It’s a good sign for the market, for now. There’s an old adage in that says to never short a dull market. I don’t know who to credit with that, but it makes sense. While I do see some cracks in the stock market right now, like a poorly performing banking sector and groups of stocks breaking down, the market has done an excellent job of internally rotating from index to index and sector to sector.” Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/like-watching-paint-dry-2/
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4137.
-VIX rose about 1% to 16.89.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.489%.
-Drop from Top: 13.7% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 327-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.5% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not encouraging.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
Indicators were neutral Friday and there was nothing today to change a basically neutral view.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
