“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The Federal Open Market Committee chose to lower its key overnight borrowing rate by a half percentage point, or 50 basis points, amid signs that inflation was moderating and the labor market was weakening.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/18/fed-cuts-rates-september-2024-.html
“U.S. single-family homebuilding rebounded sharply in August, but a moderate increase in building permits suggested that the momentum was unlikely to be sustained against the backdrop of rising supply of new homes on the market.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-single-family-housing-starts-124845448.html
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 417.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 5618.
-VIX rose about 4% to 18.23.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.721% (compared to about this time, prior trading day).
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a super BULL position at zero Bear-signs and 20-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) remained +20 (20 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping upward. This is a buy signal. (It was 20 yesterday – I had a typo here.)
The Fed lowered rates by one-half %, not the quarter point decrease that I expected. Before the news was released, CNBC’s Steve Leisman reported that a half-point was better than even odds. That may be why markets didn’t hold on to their gains after the Fed press conference - the higher rate reduction had been expected. It now looks like clear sailing to me and I would expect that markets will finish higher tomorrow. As of this point (9pm Wednesday), S&P 500 futures are up about half a percent. That would push the S&P 500 to new all-time highs and that would be the signal for me to buy some stocks.
I am bullish and looking for the final evidence that the weakness is over.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
