PPI ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
PPI (CNBC)
“Wholesale prices rose in August about in line with expectations, the final inflation data point as the Federal Reserve gets set to lower interest rates. The producer price index, a measure of final demand goods and services costs that producers receive, increased 0.2%...Excluding food and energy, PPI increased 0.3%, slightly hotter than the 0.2% consensus estimate.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/12/producer-price-index-august-2024-.html
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (NY Post)
“The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits last week rose slightly to 230,000, matching economists’ expectations as the US job market continues to cool. Jobless claims increased by 2,000 in the week ended Sept. 7 from 228,000 the week before, according to labor department data.” Story at...
https://nypost.com/2024/09/12/business/jobless-claims-rise-slightly-to-230k-as-employment-market-continues-to-cool/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 5596.
-VIX declined about 3% to 17.12. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.680% (compared to about this time, prior trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
XLK – reduced 9/9.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24. Reduced 9/6.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread improved, and reversed to a BULL position at 8 Bear-signs and 13-Bull, although this is close to neutral. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) improved to +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA remains down. The 10-day will lag the indicators, but I like to use the 10-day to minimize chances of being whipsawed.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
There were plenty of bull-signs today: The McClellan Oscillator turned positive and that cancels the Hindenburg Omen signals that occurred over the last 2 days. (They didn’t last long!); The S&P 500 climbed above its 50-Dma; The 10-dMA of Breadth (% of stocks advancing on the NYSE) broke above 50%, i.e., half of all stocks on the NYSE have been rising over the last 2 weeks. There were others, too, evidenced by the 50-Indicator spread.
 
It looks like the pullback is over, but I will wait until the 10-dMA of the 50-indicator spread turns up before I increase my stock holdings.  
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral waiting for the 50-Indicator spread to turn up. It is still falling.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.