Michigan Sentiment ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"They're eating the dogs, the people that came in, they're eating the cats. They're eating the pets of the people that live there, and this is what's happening in our country, and it's a shame." – Donald Trump responding to a question about immigrants during the debate.
 

Political commentary from Michael Ramirez at...
https://michaelramirez.substack.com/p/michael-ramirez-bright-side-09-12
 
BIDEN’S LEGAL DEFEATS (WSJ)
“President Biden considers himself a law-abiding fellow. But when it comes to living within the law as established by Congress, his Administration is the most lawless in long memory. His regulators keep rewriting laws as they see fit, and the result is that they keep losing in court in humiliating fashion... to illustrate the breadth of the law-breaking, we’re providing a summary of the legal defeats across five of the most lawless agencies...
Net neutrality rule.
National Association of Broadcasters v. FCC.
Student loans. 
Title IX.
Clean Power Plan.
Waters of the U.S. 
Good Neighbor Plan. 
Noncompete ban. 
Welsh Carson antitrust case. 
Administrative law judges. 
Meta acquisition. 
Microsoft purchase of Activision Blizzard.
Proxy advisory rule.
Private fund disclosure rule. 
Debt Box. 
Stock buyback rule. 
Grayscale. 
Ripple.
...This is an extraordinary record of lawlessness, and note the variety of judges who have ruled in these cases. They illustrate the degree to which the progressive administrative state simply disregards the law as its avatars seek to impose their will on Americans without the consent of the governed.... Americans are fortunate the Founders created an independent judiciary to block this will to undemocratic power.” – The WSJ Editorial Board. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/biden-administration-legal-defeats-courts-sec-epa-ftc-fcc-gary-gensler-lina-khan-regulation-fc496d28?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
My cmt: See the above article to read the specifics of each case and for additional commentary.
 
ABC HARRIS-TRUMP DEBATE BIAS (WSJ)
“...as we reviewed the [debate] video and compared notes, we became concerned about the role of ABC News and what it did to our democracy. The moderators, who were supposed to be neutral referees, had decided in advance they were going to “fact check” Mr. Trump but not Ms. Harris.
She enlisted every charge ever leveled against Mr. Trump, regardless of the truth. That included, to name a few, the false claims that he favors a national abortion ban and opposes in vitro fertilization, that he called neo-Nazis in Charlottesville, Va., “very fine people,” and that he threatened a “bloodbath” if he loses the election.
Each is untrue...
... Time and again we find that supposedly neutral democratic institutions have been corrupted by bias...ABC undermined the system for everyone.” - Mark Penn, pollster and adviser to Bill and Hillary Clinton and Andrew Stein, President, York City Council, 1986-93.” Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/abcs-bias-deprived-voters-of-a-fair-debate-2024-presidential-election-trump-harris-01410617?mod=opinion_lead_pos7
 
UNIV OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. consumer sentiment improved in September amid subsiding inflation, though Americans remained cautious ahead of the November presidential election, a survey showed on Friday. The University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 69.0 this month, compared to a final reading of 67.9 in August... "A growing share of both Republicans and Democrats now anticipate a Harris win," said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumer-sentiment-rises-september-143056881.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 5526.
-VIX declined about 0.7% to 16.56. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.657% (compared to about this time, prior trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
XLK – reduced 9/9.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24. Reduced 9/6.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread improved to a strong BULL position at 2 Bear-signs and 19-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) improved to +17 (17 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA reversed upward. The 10-day will lag the indicators, but I like to use the 10-day to minimize chances of being whipsawed. This is a buy signal.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
We got a Buy-signal today from the 50-day indicator.  That’s good and I’ll buy some stocks on Monday. I am reminded that we have a very strong signal now, but we’ve seen strong, Bull-signals fail in the past. There were only 3 Bear-signs and 21 Bull-signs at the top on 28 March before a 6% pullback. This time is different: the S&P 500 is below the bottom of its trend line, not at the top like it was in March; the Index is coming out of weakness, not at a top as it was then. I probably won’t go all-in until the Index breaks above its bottom trend line.   
 
BOTTOM LINE
Time to add to stocks. I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. Monday I’ll probably increase stock holdings to about 60%. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.