NY Fed Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
NY FED MANUFACTURING (CNY Business Journal)
“The Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business-conditions index climbed 16 points to 11.5 in September with activity expanding for the first time since November 2023... Based on firms responding to the survey, the September reading indicates business activity “grew in New York State for the first time in nearly a year” the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its Monday report.” Story at...
https://www.cnybj.com/new-york-manufacturing-activity-grew-in-september-for-the-first-time-in-10-months/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 5633.
-VIX rose about 4% to 17.14. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.621% (compared to about this time, prior trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread improved slightly & remained in a strong BULL position at 1 Bear-sign and 19-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) improved to +18 (18 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping upward. This is a buy signal.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Indicators still look very strong. As posted earlier, I added the 2x S&P 500 ETF (SSO) today, Monday.
 
Repeating from Friday:
I am reminded that we have seen strong, Bull-signals fail in the past. There were only 3 Bear-signs and 21 Bull-signs at the top on 28 March before a 6% pullback. This time looks different: the S&P 500 is below the bottom of its trend line, not at the top like it was in March; the Index is coming out of weakness, not at a top as it was then.
 
I am still cautious though. I am a little more than fully invested now (55% in stocks) and I probably won’t go higher until the Index makes a new all-time high, about ½% higher than today’s close, and remains there on consecutive days. I only make strong bets when markets look like a good bet. They look good now, but the Fed decision due this week still seems to be affecting market action.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish and looking for more evidence that the weakness is over.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.