Retail Sales ... Industrial Production ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
RETAIL SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“Retail sales ticked up 0.1% from July to August, after
jumping the most in a year and a half the previous month, the Commerce
Department said Tuesday.
Online retailers, sporting goods stores, and home and garden stores all
reported higher sales.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-retail-sales-ticked-last-124035046.html
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (rttnews)
“Industrial production in the U.S. rebounded by much more
than anticipated in the month of August, the Federal Reserve revealed in a
report released on Tuesday. The Fed said industrial production climbed by 0.8
percent in August after slumping by a revised 0.9 in July.” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3475639/u-s-industrial-production-rebounds-much-more-than-expected-in-august.aspx
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about a point or 2 to 5635.
-VIX rose about 3% to 17.61.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury rose to 3.647% (compared to about this time, prior trading day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread improved again & moved to a super
BULL position at zero Bear-signs and 21-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or
bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus
Bear Indicators) improved to +21 (21 more Bull indicators than Bear
indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping upward. This is a buy signal.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Bulls pushed the S&P 500 to a new, all-time high
this morning, but they were unable to keep the gains and the Index faded on the
afternoon and finished nearly flat. I don’t think that means much unless it
fails a few more tries.
All eyes are on the FED now and they will announce the
expected rate cut at 2pm eastern time. Will
it be a quarter of a point or a half-point reduction? That’s the question. A
quarter is expected. Either way more volatility than usual would be a good bet
for tomorrow.
Indicators are very strong so it looks like markets will
take the Fed announcement as good news no matter which way the rate cut goes.
As noted yesterday, I am still somewhat cautious. I am a
little more than fully invested now (55% in stocks) and I probably won’t go
higher until the Index makes a new all-time high, about ½% higher than today’s
close, and remains there on consecutive days. I only make strong bets when
markets look like a good bet. They look good now, but the Fed decision due this
week still seems to be affecting market action.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish and looking for more evidence that the
weakness is over.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 2022 and 2023.
