Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Durable Orders … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
DURABLE ORDERS (Marketplace)
“According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau for February, orders were down 1.4%. It’s the third straight monthly decline, a pattern that predates the war in the Middle East…Shwayder said looking over a longer time horizon, orders have declined in four out of the last five months. ‘This could be taken as an indicator that things are slowing down,’ he said.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6617.
-VIX rose about 7% to 25.78. (Options Players aren’t all that sanguine.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.301% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 5.2% (Max drop=9.1%)
S&P 500 % below 200-dMA: 0.5%
Trading Days since top: 58. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +6 to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
We never got a strong confirmation of the low, but signs are looking good. Indicators have sharply rebounded. Breadth has been steadily improving. As I’ve been saying for a while, it looks like the bottom is in.
 
I’d still feel better if the Index would climb above its 200-day moving average and it is possible we could see a re-test of the low, but that probably depends on the news.
 
I am still fully invested at 55% stocks in the portfolio, although I have a 20% cash position since I took some profits near the top. 50% in stocks is a good conservative position for a retiree. I don’t feel bad about having a high cash position since it is earning around 3.5%. Even though I think the bottom is in, I’m not rushing to add to stocks. As a retiree, return of investments is more important than return on investments.
 
Futures are rising as I write this. Investors are guessing that Trump will give Iran negotiations more time. I suspect he will.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’d like to see the S&P 500 climb above its 200-dMA, but I may begin to add to stocks soon, barring unforeseen issues.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
 
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