Wednesday, April 22, 2026

… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
LETTERS WSJ (WSJ)
“The calculus is simple in Democrats’ minds—President Trump and anyone or any nation aligned with him irrespective of geopolitical prerogatives is bad. Thus we find our most loyal ally in the fraught Middle East, Israel, a critically important combat and intelligence asset in the present war against the Islamist government in Iran, the subject of a Democratic fatwa against the supply of American arms.
These Democrats are aligning with an existential enemy of the Jewish state and their own government to try to gin up votes against Republicans, using the nascent antisemitic frenzy of their base to curry the vote. Such is the low state of a once proud political party.” - Paul Bloustein. WSJ letters at…
 
VIRGINIA VOTERS APPROVE GERRYMANDERING (CBS)
“Virginia voters on Tuesday approved a new congressional map that would give Democrats an advantage in 10 House districts, leaving just one safe Republican seat…”
Story at…
My cmt: This is a clear case of Tyranny of the Majority. The majority, 51.5% of Virginia voters, will allow Democrats to redraw Congressional Districts. Currently, there are 6 Democrat and 5 Republican Districts, a fair distribution for our Democrat leading Commonwealth. After the Democrat Gerrymander, there will be only 1 Republican seat. This effectively takes away honest representation from nearly half the voters in Virginia. The stated reason is to counter Trump’s actions in other states. While I am no fan of Trump, watching a Virginia Democrat majority trample on the rights of millions of fellow Virginians is despicable.  
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 7138.
-VIX declined about 3% to 18.92.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.307% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +14 to +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers
 
The drop in the 10-day spread of Bulls minus Bears is a concern, but there is no reason to worry too much. We can watch and see where it goes.
 
The Bearish Outside Reversal signal from yesterday is canceled today since the S&P 500 closed above yesterday’s high.
 
I won’t chase this market, but as the war news gets better, I may get more comfortable with adding to stock positions. As a retiree, I am conservative. It is better not to lose than it is to worry about making every penny.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. I don’t expect declines from here to be large, but it all depends on the news.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at