NY Fed Manufacturing … NAHB Housing Index … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

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"Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

   

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

 

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.

 

NY FED MANUFACTURING (New York Fed)

“Business activity increased moderately in New York State in April, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose eleven points to 11.0. New orders and shipments increased significantly. Unfilled orders rose and delivery times lengthened. Supply availability worsened somewhat. Employment expanded and the average workweek increased. The pace of input price increases picked up sharply after slowing last month, while the pace of selling price increases was little changed. Firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead, though optimism moderated and capital spending plans weakened.” Story at…

https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview

 

NAHB HOUSING INDEX (NAHB)

“The latest HMI survey also revealed that 36% of builders cut prices in April, down slightly from 37% in March. The average price reduction was 5%, down from the 6% figure in March. The use of sales incentives was 60% in April, down from 64% in March, and marking the 13th consecutive month this share has reached 60% or higher.” Story at…

https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index

 

QUICK MARKET SUMMARY

-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 7023, a new high.

-VIX declined about 1% to 18.7.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 4.281% (compared to about this time prior market day).

 

MY TRADING POSITIONS

SPY – Added 12/1/2025.

NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026

“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  

Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC

 

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:

At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

 

TODAY’S COMMENT

The S&P 500 made a new high so the correction is officially over.

Correction Drop: 9.1%

Top to Bottom: 43 Trading-days (27 Jan – 30 Mar 2026)

I cut the stock portfolio on 10 February when the S&P 500 was about ½% below the market top.

We got a weak, buy-signal 2 days before the bottom.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +17 to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers. We’ll keep an eye on the 10-day.

 

The S&P 500 made a new all-time high Wednesday. New, all-time highs for the S&P 500 give us an opportunity to check the health of the stock market. Specifically, we look at market breadth to make sure there is plenty of participation across the market. Ruh-roh! I have a really bad feeling about this. The S&P 500 made a new high today (Wednesday), but there were important warning signs. Only 74 issues on the NYSE made a new-high today and only 49% of stocks in the S&P 500 were trading above their 200-dMA’s. These signals warn of a strong possibility of a correction greater than 10%. All we can do now is watch other indicators over time to see if they confirm or refute this indication.

 

Unchanged volume was very high today suggesting confusion among investors. Some think this represents a reversal from investors and that selling will follow. Since this indicator is often wrong, it is not one of my indicators.

 

There were also a couple of overbought indicators: Bollinger Bands; Advance / Decline Ratio; and the fact that 8 out of the last 10 trading days have been up.   

 

The bull-Bear spread pretty still looks good, but failing breadth at a top is a real concern. We’ll see what develops.

 

BOTTOM LINE

I am cautiously bullish.

 

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 

 

 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

                                              

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023