Thursday, April 23, 2026

Jobless Claims … KC Fed Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
DEBT WARNING – US MAY CEASE TO BE A GREAT POWER (Fortune)
“Interest payments on the U.S. national debt are set to surpass $1 trillion in 2026, some $88 billion a month—equal to spending on defense and education combined… An excess of debt over defense is a violation of Ferguson’s Law, as described by Hoover Institution economic historian Sir Niall Ferguson in a working paper published earlier this year. Ferguson’s Law states that “any great power that spends more on debt servicing than on defense risks ceasing to be a great power. This is because the debt burden draws scarce resources towards itself, reducing the amount available for national security, and leaving the power increasingly vulnerable to military challenge.”
 
VIRGINIA’S RACE TO THE GERRYMANDER BOTTOM (WSJ)
“The gerrymander race to the bottom escalated on Tuesday as Democrats in Virginia won a narrow victory to redraw their state map to add as many as four Democratic House seats. This is bad news for GOP control of the House in November, but Republicans can also blame President Trump for starting this rolling rock that has now come down on their heads… Barack Obama on Tuesday hailed Virginia for “stand[ing] up for our democracy,” but the vote effectively ends competitive elections for Congress in most of the state. This is why voters don’t take seriously Democratic complaints about GOP threats to democracy… The main accomplishment of this gerrymander free-for-all will be to further polarize the U.S. House. The number of competitive seats in the general election will shrink. Party primaries will increasingly be the only real competition, and that will drive candidates to court the most partisan voters. The result will be more fools and posers like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Jasmine Crockett in Congress.” Opinion at…
My cmt: I heard a Constitutional expert (Professor Brad Jacob from Regent University) speak on the subject today. He said it was very likely that the Virginia gerrymander election will be nullified by the courts. A District court in Virginia has already ruled it invalid. There are two issues facing the Virginia Supreme Court when it is appealed: (1) The vote was not timed properly – it’s too close to the election in November. (2) The wording of the amendment on the ballot was misleading and confusing.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits inched up last week but remains within the historically healthy range of recent years. U.S. jobless aid applications for the week ending April 18 rose by 6,000 to 214,000…” Story at…
 
KC FED MANUFACTURING (KC Fed)
“Tenth District manufacturing activity grew further, while expectations for future activity rose slightly from last month. Raw materials prices increased sharply this month, while fewer firms reported increasing their finished product prices…. This month, contacts were asked special questions about changes in energy costs and ability to pass through energy-related costs. Almost all (93%) of firms reported that they have experienced higher transportation costs in the last two months…” - WSJ Editorial Board. Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 7110.
-VIX rose about 5% to 19.85.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.333% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +13 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers
 
Today, Thursday, there was another Bearish Outside Reversal Day. We saw another one Tuesday.
The Bearish Outside Reversal signal remains in place until the S&P 500 closes above the high on the Reversal Day. 
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.
 
The conflict/war in Iran continues to muddy the stock-market water. With the ceasefire extended by three weeks we may see more gains in the market – it’s anyone’s guess since the market is war-news driven. For now, indicators are slowly falling so I am cautious.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
Posted by at