"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." – Dean Vernon Wormer.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“…The Navy has struggled to reopen the strait due to Iran’s vast, complex web of coastal defenses and offensive capabilities arrayed along its expansive coastline bordering the Strait of Hormuz. Everything from drone swarms to anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) now threatens the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz….
…In fact, US Navy Adm. Daryl L. Caudie told the Senate Subcommittee on Defense for the Committee on Appropriations on May 21 of this year that “There are many things we can continue doing to enhance the blockade, but to actually start doing something where I’m providing escort services through a contested strait will, in my military opinion, exceed the capacity of the Navy to do that effectively.” …
…For those hoping for a peaceful end, that is the least likely outcome here. The more likely scenario is that Trump has simply bought himself time with diplomacy as a ruse. He can’t let the Iranians continue their chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, and Trump can’t risk the perception that he’s essentially surrendering to the Islamic Republic.” Story at…
'Trump card': The US Navy has no way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Iran knows it
“…during his final press conference as Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell warned that the Middle East conflict had clouded the economic outlook. Interest rate cuts, once considered a given in 2026, are now highly unlikely. Instead, soaring Treasury yields hint at interest rate hikes and a steep decline in the stock market.” Story at…
Stock market investors got a final warning from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. History says this will happen next.
“The personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed's preferred inflation measure — rose last month at an annual rate of 3.8%, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. That's up from 3.5% in March and 2.8% from February, and the highest since May 2023.”
Story at…
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pce-report-today-inflation-kevin-warsh-federal-reserve/
My cmt: Inflation at 3.8% is not good news, but it came in better than expected so…it’s good news?
“The number of people who filed for unemployment benefits rose to 215,000 in the week ended May 23, the Labor Department said Thursday. That represented an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000 from 209,000 to 210,000.“ Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/u-s-jobless-claims-rose-last-week-5e4b14e1
“New orders for manufactured durable goods jumped 7.9% in April to $345.96B, almost twice as much as the projected 4.0% monthly growth. Compared to a year ago, new orders are up 17.2%.” Story at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/05/28/durable-goods-orders-jump-7-9-in-april-more-than-expected
“The U.S. economy grew more slowly during the first three months of the year, updated government data showed Thursday. Gross domestic product, a broad measure of the goods and services produced across the U.S., rose at a 1.6% seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate in January through March…” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/q1-gross-domestic-product-revision-e1a6ff93
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 7564.
-VIX declined about 3% to 15.74.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.453% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
5/20/26: Nvidia beats on revenue and guidance, adds $80 billion to buyback plan.
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
I am cautiously bullish – I’m following indicators.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
