The post was subsequently removed.
My cmt: When the U.S. conducted air-strikes against Muammar Gaddafi, I was concerned that he would bring more terrorist actions against the U.S. Instead, the opposite ocurred. Terrorists only respond to force. Our attacks against Iran are probably long overdue. What bothers me is that the Trump Administration seemed to believe that air-strikes alone would topple the Islamic government. That is a naïve and incompetent view. They may still get a settlement, but will it be enough to stop Iran’s terrorist support, open the Strait of Hormuz and remove the uranium stockpile?
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“…the New York Mets [were] a historically hapless team that ended the [inaugural] season 40-120. One day their grizzled manager, Casey Stengel, said: “Can’t anyone here play this game?”
After watching events in Washington over the past week, I have an inkling of how Mr. Stengel felt… We have two monumentally inept teams.
Start with the Democrats. While running for the chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee, Ken Martin promised to conduct a thorough review of the party’s failed 2024 presidential campaign…CNN [published] the draft report. It was incredibly bad—disorganized, poorly written, nearly devoid of sources and substance. It was an embarrassment, most of all to Mr. Martin….
…The other inept team is the Republicans… After President Trump requested $220 million to secure his new East Wing ballroom, acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced a $1.776 billion fund to compensate people who claim to have been subjected to unjust treatment by the government—likely including rioters who stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021…
…Former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell summed it up well: “So the nation’s top law-enforcement official is asking for a slush fund to pay people who assault cops? Utterly stupid, morally wrong—take your pick.”…
… Last week’s farce was only a momentary interruption in the tragedy of Mr. Trump’s ongoing assault on constitutional government. If Republicans can’t resist the direction in which Mr. Trump is leading them and Democrats can’t offer an alternative, the U.S. will continue spiraling downward.” - William A. Galston, Opinion Columnist, Politics & Ideas, The Wall Street Journal. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/news/author/william-a-galston
That metric is the equity risk premium, often defined as the gap between the S&P 500’s earnings yield—the profit companies generate relative to stock valuations, expressed as a percentage—and that of the 10-year Treasury note.”
The risk premium for holding stocks over bonds is vanishing
My cmt: The risk for holding stocks over bonds is increasing, but that’s not the way this article defines “risk premium.” Bottom line: Stocks are riskier now and may soon be riskier than bonds.
RICHMOND FED (Investing Live)
“Fifth District manufacturing activity improved in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The future indexes for shipments and new orders increased further into positive territory.” Story at…
https://investinglive.com/news/us-richmond-fed-may-composite-index-13-vs-3-prior-20260527/
DALLAS FED SERVICES (Fort Worth Inc)
“Texas factory activity continued to expand in May, though growth slowed from the previous month, according to the latest Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The survey’s production index — a key measure of state manufacturing conditions — fell nearly 10 points to 9.4, signaling a more moderate pace of output growth. Other indicators also remained positive but weakened compared to April, including capacity utilization, new orders and shipments.
https://fortworthinc.com/news/texas-manufacturing-growth-continues-to-expand-but-slows-in-/
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1 pt to 7520.
-VIX declined about 4% to 16.29.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.502% (compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
5/20/26: Nvidia beats on revenue and guidance, adds $80 billion to buyback plan.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +13 to +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
The S&P 500 made a new all-time high today, by a
point, Wednesday. 136 issues on the NYSE made a new-high today; that is below
the 5-year average, but still reasonably high. Breadth remained positive - more
than 50% of stocks on the NYSE have been up over the last 10-days. These stats
show breadth is ok so we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime
soon.
Wednesday there was High-unchanged-volume.
Some think that unchanged volume is a sign of a market reversal, in this case lower.
This is not one of my indicators since it is often wrong.
Indicators look good; the Bull-Bear Spread was higher for
2 consecutive days. Bear signals are unremarkable. It is time to add some
stocks to the trading portfolio unless the price action tomorrow weirds me out.
While many are optimistic about the Iran conflict, I
doubt that there will be an easy resolution. How the stock market may respond to
more shooting is an unknown.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish – I’m just following indicators.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of
Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when
it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 50%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“Fifth District manufacturing activity improved in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The future indexes for shipments and new orders increased further into positive territory.” Story at…
https://investinglive.com/news/us-richmond-fed-may-composite-index-13-vs-3-prior-20260527/
“Texas factory activity continued to expand in May, though growth slowed from the previous month, according to the latest Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The survey’s production index — a key measure of state manufacturing conditions — fell nearly 10 points to 9.4, signaling a more moderate pace of output growth. Other indicators also remained positive but weakened compared to April, including capacity utilization, new orders and shipments.
https://fortworthinc.com/news/texas-manufacturing-growth-continues-to-expand-but-slows-in-/
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1 pt to 7520.
-VIX declined about 4% to 16.29.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.502% (compared to about this time prior market day).
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
5/20/26: Nvidia beats on revenue and guidance, adds $80 billion to buyback plan.
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +13 to +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
I am cautiously bullish – I’m just following indicators.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
