“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
I am not a Trump fan, but I do get ticked when I hear the politicians lie. The Democrats are falling all over themselves blaming Trump for high grocery prices and high prices in general. The Iran conflict is responsible for high gas prices. Other prices? As the inflation chart below shows…not so much.
DEAL TO OPEN STRAIGHT OF HORMUZ DISCUSSED (Reuters)
“US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, sources close to the talks said.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-iran-discuss-phased-deal-reopen-hormuz-end-us-blockade-sources-say-2026-09-24/
“The rate hike, which took the key funds rate to a target range of 3.75%-4%, “brings policy closer to what I believe is needed to return inflation to 2% at a pace that balances inflation with risks to the labor market. Looking ahead, if conditions evolve as I expect, some modest further tightening may be warranted.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/philadelphia-feds-anna-paulson-says-modest-rate-moves-likely-ahead-to-tame-inflation.html
“Fewer people applied for U.S. unemployment benefits last week, as U.S. jobless claims remain at historically low levels and most Americans enjoy job security. The Labor Department said Thursday that 197,000 people applied for unemployment checks last week, the fewest since mid-July…” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/jobs-unemployment-claims-layoffs-91d99d8ff50cd5aea33a858c677976d5
“Sales of new US single-family homes surged to an eight-month high in August as buyers took advantage of price cuts and other incentives, but rising mortgage rates stemming from the war in the Middle East remain a drag on the housing market. New home sales increased 6.4%...” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-new-home-sales-jump-eight-month-high-august-2026-09-24/
-Thursday the S&P 500 was little changed at 7704.
-VIX rose about 3% to 15.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.200% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -7 to -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
I’m cautiously bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
