Real Investment Advice Excerpt … Intel … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING EXCERPT (Real Investment Advice)

“With surging deficits in the U.S., mounting public debt, and unfavorable demographics, not to mention rising external debt levels of some emerging market economies, these risk factors reduce policy space for responding to exogenous macroeconomic shocks…The dependency on liquidity, interventions, and debt has displaced fiscal policy that could support longer-term economic resilience.

This doesn’t mean the markets will “mean revert” tomorrow, but it does suggest that there is a rising risk of disappointment for economic growth, and ultimately earnings, in the future.” – Lance Roberts. Commentary at…

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-the-world-diverges-from-the-us/

 

WHY INTEL’S STOCK MAY SEE A MASSIVE REBOUND (Investopedia)

“Despite the steep stock declines, analysts’ views on the company remain strong. Since the chipmaker last reported results in July, analysts have been raising their estimates for the company. It comes in stark contrast to the declining stock, helping to push Intel's valuation to the lowest levels in years…Intel's shares are either presenting investors with an incredible opportunity; or, investors currently selling the stock and pushing the price lower aren't as optimistic as the analysts about the future of the business. We will soon find out.” Commentary at…
https://www.investopedia.com/news/why-intels-stock-may-see-massive-rebound/?partner=YahooSA&yptr=yahoo

My cmt: I wrote back on 8 August, “While Intel (INTC) is no longer a momentum play, I think it is still a value play that is worth owning at this price…” The stock is down 9% since then. Ouch, but I am still relying on the CEO’s comment. Mr. Swan said, “Our biggest challenge in the second half [of 2018] will be meeting additional demand, and we are working intently with our customers and our factories to be prepared so we are not constraining our customers' growth.” With high demand it still seems like this selloff is overblown. The resolution of divergent opinions will probably play out at Intel’s next earnings report due the last week in October. I consider Intel a buy at this price.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 2904.

-VIX dropped about 7% to 12.79. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.062% as of this post.

 

Sentiment is still elevated, but it has dropped below action levels and that would allow the market to make further gains, baring other issues.

 

The Squeeze is on. Bollinger Bands on the S&P 500 index are exhibiting a “Squeeze” (top and bottom bands are close together) suggesting a breakout (up or down) is coming. The S&P 500 Index is now much closer to the upper band suggesting that the break is more likely to be down.  We need to see confirmation by RSI, but RSI is still solidly neutral (53, 14-day SMA) so no need to panic yet. The past three squeezes have led to little or no reaction from the stock market.

 

Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators remained unchanged at zero (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from -51 to -45 indicating that conditions are slightly better than 2-weeks ago. 

 

Overall, the indicators are improving. Tariffs are still an issue, but the markets seem OK so far. Investors understand the issue. The Trump administration is attempting to get China to enforce intellectual property rights and trade fairly with the US. So far, the Chinese don’t seem inclined to negotiate.  I think they underestimate the resolve of the Trump administration and that of the American people, assuming the public is paying attention to the real reasons for the tariffs.

 

I remain fully invested. 

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).

 

 

I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially optimistic.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Tuesday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment, Volume & VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.

Empire Manufacturing … Tariffs … Jeffrey Saut Commentary Excerpt … Hussman Commentary Excerpt … National Debt … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

EMPIRE MANUFACTURING (Marketwatch)

“Factories in the New York region churned out goods at a slower but still-flourishing pace in September, a survey of executives showed. The Empire State manufacturing index fell to 19 points in September from a 25.6 reading in August that was a 10-month high.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/manufacturers-grow-at-slower-but-still-rapid-pace-in-september-feds-empire-survey-shows-2018-09-17

 

TARIFFS (CNBC)

“President Donald Trump will put 10 percent tariffs on an $200 billion in Chinese goods, which will go up to 25 percent at the end of the year.” Story at…

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/trump-puts-new-tariffs-on-china-as-trade-war-escalates.html

 

APPLE EXCLUDED FROM TARIFFS (ZeroHedge)

“…a product code that covers Apple Inc.’s Watch and AirPods - as well as similar smart watches, fitness trackers and other goods made by competitors - was removed from the final list, Bloomberg sources said.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-17/apple-products-be-excluded-latest-china-tariffs

 

JEFFREY SAUT COMMENTARY EXCERPT (Raymond James)

“In the world we live in, few look at risk. Most only look at reward. The few who do look at risk (the educated, the Street savvy, etc.) make their money at the expense of the great unwashed majority who swallow the noise nonsense about getting rich quick. Investing is a get rich slowly process. You have to put your money at risk in the face of uncertainty. Emotions run rampant before the uncertainty of floating, fluctuating, often violent and volatile markets. Constantly discounting prices are fickle and full of surprises. Disorder is usually the norm.

The call for this week: ‘It’s a bull market you know!’” – Jjeffrey Saut.

https://www.raymondjames.com/wealth-management/market-commentary-and-insights/investment-strategy

 

JOHN HUSSMAN COMMENTARY EXCERPT (Hussman Funds)

“Last week [end of August], the stock market recorded the most offensive valuation extreme in history, on the basis of measures best correlated with actual subsequent returns across a century of market cycles. The advance brought the S&P 500 Index about 1% above its previous January 26 record. The current extreme eclipses both the 1929 peak, and the 2000 bubble peak.

I am aware of no plausible conditions under which current extremes are likely to work out well for investors. There are a few possibilities that could involve a smaller loss than the two-thirds of market capitalization that I expect to vanish, as the run-of-the-mill, baseline expectation for the S&P 500 over the completion of this cycle. Yet it’s worth recognizing that the completion of every market cycle in history has taken the most reliable valuation measures we identify (those best correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 market returns) to less than half of current levels.” - John Hussman, PhD.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180904/

My cmt: We can’t disagree with Mr. Hussman’s comment and analysis; the problem, as always, is the timing.  There are now about 3000 issues traded on the NYSE. In 1996 there were 7400 companies listed on the exchange. During the interim, population has increased, so there are now more investors chasing fewer issues. Thus, we have more demand and less supply. We should not be surprised by extremes in the market’s valuation – it is to be expected. This really illustrates why valuation alone is a poor tool for market timing.

 

NATIONAL DEBT – THE CLOCK SAYS IT ALL

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Monday the S&P 500 dropped about 0.6% to 2889.

-VIX jumped about 13% to 13.68. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.993% as of this post.

 

Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from -3 to 0 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from -56 to -51 indicating that conditions are slightly better than 2-weeks ago. 

 

Overall, the indicators are improving. I think the market will climb somewhat higher before we see a retreat, but we do remain somewhat concerned about possible market reaction to the tariffs. The Trump administration is attempting to get China to enforce intellectual property rights and trade fairly with the US. So far, they don’t seem inclined to negotiate.  I think they underestimate the resolve of the Trump administration and that of the US. In the meantime, however, the market could become unsettled.   

 

I remain fully invested. 

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially optimistic.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Monday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment, Volume & VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.

Retail Sales … Industrial Production … Consumer Confidence … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

RETAIL SALES (ABC News)

"U.S. retail sales barely rose in August as consumers slowed their spending after a robust month of shopping in July.

The Commerce Department said Friday that the value of purchases ticked up just 0.1 percent last month…” Story at…

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-retail-sales-01-pct-weakest-gain-months-57821550

 

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Reuters)

“U.S. industrial production rose in August, as strong output in auto manufacturing offset lackluster production in the rest of the factory sector. The Federal Reserve said on Friday industrial production rose 0.4 percent last month after an upwardly revised 0.4 percent increase in July….” Story at…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-output/us-auto-sector-output-boosts-industrial-production-idUSKCN1LU1UF

 

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (MarketWatch)

“The confidence of Americans in the U.S. economy and their own well-being rose toward the end of summer and stood near a 14-year high, according to a survey of consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to 100.8…” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-bullish-on-economy-toward-end-of-summer-consumer-sentiment-shows-2018-09-14

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Friday the S&P 500 was up a point to 2905.

-VIX dropped about 2% to 12.07. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury increased to 2.997% as of this post.

 

Today we had a slight improvement in indicators, but not too much different than yesterday…

 

Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from -7 to -3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dipped from -54 to -56 indicating that conditions are slightly worse than 2-weeks ago. 

 

BULLISH SIGNS

-Up volume continues to pick up.

-Size of the up-moves have been larger than the down moves over the last month.

-Late day action (the Smart Money) is turning up.

 

NEUTRAL SIGNS

-Breadth (measured as the % of NYSE stocks advancing over the past 10-days) is flat; but it is only 48.4% indicating that less than half of all stocks on the NYSE have been advancing over the last 10-days.

-VIX is neutral.

-Bollinger Bands and VIX are not giving a signal.

 

BEAR SIGNS

-Breadth vs the S&P 500 index indicates that the Index is too far ahead of most stocks on the NYSE.

-New-high/new-low data is headed lower.

-Money Trend is falling.

-Statistically, the S&P 500 is too calm (measured by daily moves) suggesting some down moves ahead.

 

Overall, the indicators are still slightly negative, but I think the market will climb somewhat higher before we see a retreat. If I’m wrong, we’ll worry if the Index falls below the 50-day value…or if the indicators really turn south.

 

I remain fully invested. 

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).

 

I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially optimistic.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Friday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment was negative; Volume & VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) … Jobless Claims … “Dogs and Cats Living Together - Mass Hysteria” … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

CPI (MarketWatch)

“American families paid more for gas, rent and airfare in August, but upward pressure on consumer inflation eased for the first time in almost a year. The consumer price index rose by 0.2% in August…” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-inflation-climbs-again-in-august-cpi-shows-but-pace-of-increase-slows-2018-09-13

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)

“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, hitting its lowest level in nearly 49 years and pointing to robust labor market conditions. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 204,000 for the week ended Sept. 8…” Story at…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-unemployment/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-drop-to-near-49-year-low-idUSKCN1LT23J

 

DOGS & CATS LIVING TOGETHER…MASS HYSTERIA

I have no problem with evacuations on the NC Outer Banks and South of here, this was after all a dangerous storm, but the hysteria in Hampton Roads of Virginia regarding hurricane Florence has been over the top. I was at Home Depot Wednesday in Chesapeake, VA buying a smoke detector.  There were lines of people buying generators and water.  At the time, the hurricane was predicted (with high confidence) to pass more than 200-miles south of us.  As of 4PM Thursday, the storm is tracking as predicted and the instruments at a buoy at Ft Story reported sustained winds of 33 mph. (Buoy reports are the highest you’ll get.) This is typical for a winter northeaster in our area when no evacuations are normally ordered.

 

Incredibly, evacuation orders were issued by the Governor on Monday (based on the 5-day forecast from the Hurricane Center) and reaffirmed Thursday (even though the forecast by then showed Florence would miss our area by hundreds of miles). Due to the evacuation orders, children have been out of school for 4- days. Residents of nursing homes were forced to move at great cost and risk. Many businesses were forced to close along with some area government offices and medical centers. MASS HYSTERIA!

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Thursday the S&P 500 was up about 0.5% to 2904.

-VIX dropped about 6% to 12.37. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury increased slightly to 2.976% as of this post.

 

Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators declined from -3 to -7 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dipped from -41 to -54 indicating that conditions are worse than 2-weeks ago. 

 

BULLISH SIGNS

-Up volume continues to pick up.

-Size of the up-moves have been larger than the down moves over the last month.

 

NEUTRAL SIGNS

-Breadth (measured as the % of NYSE stocks advancing over the past 10-days) is flat; but it is only 46.9% indicating that less than half of all stocks on the NYSE have been advancing over the last 10-days.

-Late day action (the Smart Money) is flat.

-VIX is neutral.

 

BEAR SIGNS

-Breadth vs the S&P 500 index indicates that the Index is too far ahead of most stocks on the NYSE.

-New-high/new-low data is headed sharply lower.

-Money Trend is falling.

-Statistically, the S&P 500 is too calm (measured by daily moves) suggesting some down moves ahead.

 

Overall, the indicators are dipping, but I think the market will climb somewhat higher before we see a retreat. If I’m wrong, we’ll worry if the Index falls below the 50-day value…or if the indicators really turn south.

 

I remain fully invested. 

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals improved to NEUTRAL on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially optimistic.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Thursday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment was negative; Volume & VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.

Producer Price Index (PPI) … Crude inventories … FED Beige Book … Suspects in Novichok Poisoning … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (MarketWatch)

“The wholesale cost of U.S. goods and services fell in August for the first time in a year and a half as the recent upturn in inflation appeared to ease, at least temporarily. The producer price index declined by 0.1% last month…” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wholesale-inflation-falls-for-first-time-in-18-months-ppi-shows-2018-09-12

 

CRUDE INVENTORIES (OilPrice.com)

“A day after the American Petroleum Institute gave oil bulls a cause for celebration with an estimated 8.636-million-barrel inventory decline for the week to September 7, the Energy Information Administration added to the optimism by reporting a draw of 5.3 million barrels.” Story at…

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Prices-Rally-On-Significant-Crude-Draw.html

Oil prices were up as a result if the draw.

 

FED BEIGE BOOK (Business Insider)

“U.S. businesses have scaled back or postponed investments in several parts of the country due to concerns about international trade tensions, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday…Despite the trade tensions, the Fed said the economy was expanding at a moderate pace and a tight job market has led to labor shortages across the country and in many occupations.” Story at…

https://www.businessinsider.com/feds-beige-book-us-businesses-scaling-back-investments-trade-tensions-2018-9?r=UK&IR=T

 

SUSPECTS NAMED IN NOVICHOK POISONING (BBC)

“Two Russian nationals have been named as suspects in the attempted murder of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia. The men, using the names Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov, are thought to be officers from Russia's military intelligence service [GRU], the PM [Prime Minister] said. Scotland Yard and the CPS say there is enough evidence to charge the men.” Story at…

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45421445

Trump-Putin 2020: Make Russia Great Again!

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Wednesday the S&P 500 was little changed at 2889.

-VIX dropped about 1% to 13.10. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.966% as of this post.

 

Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from -6 to -3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dipped from -34 to -41 indicating that conditions are worse than 2-weeks ago.  As has been true for some time, indicators still have a negative outlook at this point, but are not all that bad.  We haven’t seen a concerted warning by topping indicators either. 

 

Up-volume is picking up and that’s a good sign.

 

It still looks like the Index may fall to the 50-dMA. We’ll worry if the Index falls below the 50-day value…or if the indicators really turn south. Both Utilities and XLI spread vs. the S&P 500 are turning more bullish, so it doesn’t look like a serious drop is near.

 

I remain fully invested. 

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEGATIVE on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

 

I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially optimistic.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Wednesday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment was negative; Volume & VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.