“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“The fact that so many successful politicians are such
shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on
us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy.” ― Thomas Sowell
“It has become undeniably clear and obvious to any
reasonable person that Donald Trump is experiencing increasing challenges with
his speech, language, and memory during these last few weeks and months. Such a
conclusion does not require a huge team of investigative journalists: a person
only has to watch the corrupt ex-president’s speeches, interviews and other
public behavior. For example, at a series of rallies and other events last
weekend, Trump repeatedly confused one person with another. Like a broken
computer in a science fiction movie, Trump appears to have moments where he
cannot speak, appears lost in his thinking, and is more generally confused as
he spouts nonsense words and non-sequiturs.” - Dr. John Gartner, former
professor at the Johns Hopkins University Medical School. From...
Dr.
John Gartner: The world is watching "a fundamental breakdown in Trump’s
ability to use language" (msn.com)
"If Trump doesn't win in November (he won’t) he's
headed for what for him will be life in prison. He is a traitor to the United
States." – Post on “X” by Anthony Scaramucci, former White House Director
of Communications under Trump, founder of SkyBridge Capital hedge fund and
frequent CNBC guest.
“...both Messrs. Trump and Biden aren’t only weak
contenders but massively flawed, old and declining, despised by much of
America. In my lifetime there have been lower points in our nation’s politics,
but it is hard to recall them just now.” - Carl Rove, Former White House Deputy
Chief of Staff under George W. Bush. WSJ Op-Ed at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tuesdays-winners-arent-so-super-voters-overwhelmingly-back-terrible-candidates-52b98456
Biden or Trump? Biden or Trump? Third Party.
THIRD PARTY COMING (The Western Journal)
“The third-party movement calling itself No Labels is
moving forward to pick a presidential candidate. A Friday meeting is expected
to lay out a timetable for the selection process of a presidential and
vice-presidential candidate, according to the Associated Press, which cited two people it did not name as
its sources.” Story at...
No
Labels' Party Expected to Enter Presidential Race, Which Could Tear Apart
Biden's Chances (msn.com)
My cmt: This is the first time in political history that
Independents are a bigger % of voters than either Republicans or Democrats.
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Yahoo Finance)
“Data from the
Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed the labor market
added 275,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in February, significantly more additions
than the 200,000 expected by economists. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate
increased to 3.9%...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/february-jobs-report-us-economy-adds-275000-jobs-unemployment-rate-hits-39-133253114.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.7% to 5124.
-VIX rose about 2% to 14.74.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.077%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of
support around the 200 level. If Boeing
drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Indicators dipped some, but remained bullish.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 8 bear-signs and 16-Bull. A week ago,
there were 5 bear-signs and 18 bull-signs.
On the BEAR side:
-Friday was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day. According to
Investopedia: “This demonstrates that the bulls had control over the market
before the bears took the reins in a meaningful way, signaling a shift in the
overall trend...
For instance, a stock may have a small move higher on the first day, climb even
higher the second day, but then sharply decline by the second day’s end... This
formation is considered a strong indicator that the prior upward momentum is
waning and a reversal is on the horizon.”
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/outsidereversal.asp#:~:text=A%20bearish%20outside%20reversal%2C%20also,by%20the%20second%20day's%20end
- The S&P 500 is 12.6% above its 200-dMA. Markets are
getting stretched. (The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
- All the ETFs I track were above their respective
200-dMA, today, 3/8/2024. That’s too bullish, so it’s a bearish indicator. This
indicator will be extended for a week.
- Selling pressure has been greater than buying pressure for
awhile
On the BULL side:
- 59% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the
last 10-days. (45-55% is neutral.)
- New-high/new-low data is bullish.
- McClellan Oscillator.
NEUTRAL indicators include:
-10.5% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week
highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 7 March 2024. (There is no
bullish signal for this indicator, but this is a good, higher than average
number that reinforces the notion that breadth is healthy with decent
participation in the advance.)
- RSI remains in neutral territory.
- Bollinger Bands remain neutral.
-There have been 11 up-days over the last 20 sessions.
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions.
The S&P 500 is 4.1% above its 50-dMA. That’s high, but not an extreme number.
These indicators suggest we need to be alert to the
possibility that markets could retreat, and
Friday’s Outside Reversal Day is concerning, even though it is not always
correct. I’ll watch market action Monday. I may sell leveraged positions if
there’s a lot of bearish action. It’s not an easy decision, because the S&P
500 is very close to its lower trendline, suggesting the move is likely to be higher
not lower.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish, but I will take profits in
leveraged positions when warranted.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming
effort and may take awhile.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
From Michael Ramirez. Political commentary at...
https://michaelramirez.substack.com/p/michael-ramirez-presidential-portraits?r=ntzh3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“$175,300,000,000,000 is the most important financial
number in the world.
The new Financial
Report of the United States Government (February 2024) estimates
that the financial position of Social Security and Medicare are under
funded by that much. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellin signed the report. The
amount is unfathomable. Here are two examples for context:
-The gross
domestic product of every country on planet earth was only $104.5
trillion last year.
-$175.3 trillion is nearly as
much as our federal government has spent on
everything since the Constitution was written in 1787, even adjusted
for inflation.” From...
https://openthebooks.substack.com/p/the-1753-trillion-doomsday-clock
“Vast swaths of the United States are at risk of running
short of power as electricity-hungry data centers and clean-technology
factories proliferate around the country, leaving utilities and regulators
grasping for credible plans to expand the nation’s creaking power grid.” Story
at...
Amid
explosive demand, America is running out of power (msn.com)
My cmt: Solar and wind won’t make up the difference. Regulatory
issues will make the effort to catch up a big challenge. Politicians are
driving this potential shortage.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“U.S. applications for jobless benefits were unchanged
last week, settling at a healthy level as the labor market continues to show
strength in the face of elevated interest rates. Unemployment claims for the
week ending March 2 were 217,000, matching the previous week's revised level...”
Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-applications-jobless-claims-hold-healthy-levels-107880921
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 5157.
-VIX slipped about 0.4% to 14.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.088%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of
support around the 200 level. If Boeing
drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Fast Money pundits on CNBC have had a mostly bearish
tone in recent discussions, but they have been wrong – “Buy-the-Dip” is still in
play. Market internals were good today
with advancers 2x decliners and advancing volume also twice declining volume. “This
is not the correction you are looking for. You can go about your business. Move along.”
My bullish indicators are outpacing the bearish ones by a
wide margin. 10.5% of all issues on the NYSE made new-highs today when the
S&P 500 made a new all-time high. Even if there was another pullback, my
work shows that it would be reasonably shallow, less than 10%.
A pullback is still possible. Markets remain
stretched: The S&P 500 remains in
the upper-range of Bollinger Bands, though not overbought yet – same for RSI;
The S&P 500 is 13.4% above its 200-dMA, slightly above the point where we
get a bear signal. (The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.); All the ETFs
I track were still above their respective 200-dMA, today, 3/7/2024. That’s too
bullish, so it’s a bearish indicator. This indicator will be extended for a
week.
These indicators suggest we need to be alert to the
possibility that markets could retreat, but for the time being, I think markets
move higher.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, there
were 8 bear-signs and 17-Bull. Wednesday, there were 7
bear-sign and
17 bull-signs.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined
to HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown”
of indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish, but I will take profits in
leveraged positions if topping signals increase, i.e., Bollinger Bands and RSI become overbought..
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming
effort and may take awhile.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
QUIZ: There are 5 colleges that have produced both a U.S.
President & a Super Bowl-winning QB. How many can you name? Answer at
bottom of today’s post.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“...we’re at a time in American politics, that I am not
going to lie on behalf of my presidential candidate, on behalf of my party. And
I’m very sad that others in my party have taken the position that, as long as
we get the White House, it doesn’t really matter what we say.” - Ken Buck, Representative (R-CO)
on why he is retiring.
“Last week Attorney General Letitia
James charged the world’s largest beef producer, JBS USA, with misrepresenting
its carbon emissions. “The JBS Group has profited from its fraudulent and
illegal business activities across New York State,” the AG claims in a lawsuit
filed in state court. Pray tell, how? Her argument is that eating beef is bad
for the climate, and that JBS duped consumers into buying its products by
making overly ambitious pledges to cut emissions. Seriously. That’s the case.”
- WSJ Editorial staff. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/letitia-james-sues-jbs-climate-meat-business-new-york-attorney-general-631febb1
My cmt: This is the same NY prosecutor that got a
$400-million judgement against Trump. I still don’t get charging Trump with
fraud for overvaluing his real estate holdings when there was no testimony in
the trial that the Banks would have charged higher rates if Trump had told the
truth. Now this? It’s sad commentary on Government when this kind of crap is
occurring.
“[It is] a hard truth we must all come to grips with -
there are no humans in Washington. Any one who acts to sacrifice the current
needs of their political party are either eaten alive or forced out by the
natives. These animals live and thrive on the exorbitant riches available to
indulge their deepest carnal needs, damn everything else to hell. They create
massive debts, deficits and inflation while solving no problems and enriching
themselves, political elites and the donor classes.” - Justin Weller Tampa Free
Press
Weller:
The Woman Who May Have Saved The Republic (msn.com)
BEIGE BOOK (MorningStar)
“The latest findings by the so-called Beige Book dovetail
with comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. Powell told Congress a
few hours before the report that "what we are seeing so far this year is
continued solid growth." He said the Fed expects to cut interest rates
later this year if inflation continues to slow steadily toward the central
bank's 2% target." Story at...
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240306336/feds-beige-book-says-us-economy-picked-up-speed-while-inflation-labor-market-cooled
ADP EMPOYMENT CHANGE (ADP via prnewswire)
“Private sector employment increased by 140,000 jobs in
February and annual pay was up 5.1 percent year-over-year, according to the
February ADP® National
Employment Report (TM)... "Job gains remain solid. Pay gains
are trending lower but are still above inflation," said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.” Story at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-140-000-jobs-in-february-annual-pay-was-up-5-1-302081418.html
JOLTS – JOB OPENINGS (Advisor Perspectives)
“The latest job openings and labor turnover summary
(JOLTS) report showed that job openings were little changed in January.
Vacancies inched down to 8.863 million from December's downwardly revised level
of 8.889 million. The latest reading was higher than the expected 8.800 million
vacancies.” Commentary at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/03/06/job-openings-jolts-january-2024
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.4 million barrels from the
previous week. At 448.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
1% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 5105.
-VIX rose about 0.3% to 14.5.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.106%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of
support around the 200 level. If Boeing
drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
We noted yesterday that the S&P 500 retested the 5057
area at the lower, short-term, trend-line for the Index (depending on the
scales used when one draws the chart). The Index improved towards the close,
but still closed near its lows for the day. I suggested that yesterday could
have been the end of the current pullback.
Today’s action gives us more evidence that the weakness is slowing and
is probably over for the time being.
I say “time-being” because markets remain stretched: The S&P 500 remains in the upper range of
Bollinger Bands, though not overbought yet; The S&P 500 is 12.4% above its
200-dMA, slightly above the point where we get a bear signal. (The Bear
indicator is 12% above the 200-day.); All the ETFs I track were still above
their respective 200-dMA, today, 3/6/2024. That’s too bullish, so it’s a
bearish indicator. This indicator will be extended for a week.
These indicators suggest we need to be alert to the
possibility that markets could retreat, although I would expect to see further
deterioration in indicators first; but there’s no guarantee of that. For now,
it is more likely that markets will move higher in the short-term.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, there
were 7 bear-signs and 17-Bull. Tuesday, there were 7 bear-sign and 16 bull-signs.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are positive; SENTIMENT,& VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish, but I will take profits in
leveraged positions if sell signals pop-up.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming
effort and may take awhile.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
Answer to Quiz:
1. Delaware: Biden/Flacco
2. Miami (OH): Harrison/Big Ben
3. Michigan: Ford/Brady
4. Stanford: Hoover/Elway/Plunkett
5. Navy: Carter/Staubach
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more
money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“I came away from the [Liz Cheney’s] book ["Oath and
Honor, a Memoir, and a Warning] thinking that Liz Cheney is an intelligent,
highly organized, honest and patriotic American citizen. Her most impressive
attribute is that she is a politician for whom honoring the Constitution and
the rule of law comes above all else, including her own political career. She
readily sacrificed her career as a member of Congress in order to communicate
the truth.” - Jim Young, in his Op-Ed in the Oklahoman.
CHENEY’S BOOK CHANGED MY MIND (The Oklahoman)"
“I voted for Donald Trump — twice. I am a staunch, almost
redneck conservative, registered Republican, Oklahoman and American... I
believe that Joe Biden and his followers in Washington have been in the top
five of the worst political leaders we have ever seen in this country’s
history... However, recently, for some reason, I purchased and downloaded a
book by Liz Cheney titled "Oath and Honor, a Memoir and a
Warning."...
...After reading Liz Cheney’s book, the committee
findings and the DOJ indictment, I do not understand how Donald Trump can
possibly be considered as a legitimate candidate for the most important job in
the world. Frankly, I don’t understand how he is not in jail right now." –
Jim Young, Guest Columnist.
https://www.oklahoman.com/story/opinion/2024/03/03/opinion-guest-republican-trump-supporter-liz-cheney-book-2024-election/72743082007/
MITCH McCONNELL ON TRUMP’S IMPEACHMENT IN 2021 (NY Times)
“Senator
Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, has told
associates that he believes President Trump committed impeachable offenses
and that he is pleased that Democrats are moving to impeach him,
believing that it will make it easier to purge him from the party, according to
people familiar with his thinking.” Story at...
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/us/mitch-mcconnell-trump-impeachment.html
My cmt: The above is why Trump hates McConnell. McConnell
was unable to convince a sufficient number of his fellow republican Senators to
impeach Trump, so he voted with the majority to acquit Trump in the Insurrection
Impeachment.
FACTORY ORDERS (US News)
“Factory orders fell 3.6% after slipping 0.3% in
December, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Tuesday... They
decreased 1.6% year-on-year in January.” Story at...
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2024-03-05/us-factory-orders-fall-more-than-expected-in-january
The drop in Factory orders was higher than anticipated by
Economists.
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the services sector expanded in February for
the 14th consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 52.6 percent...
0.8 percentage point lower than January’s reading of 53.4 percent... The
majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions.” Story
at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/february/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 fell about 1% to 5079.
-VIX rose about 7% to 14.46.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.156%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of
support around the 200 level. If Boeing
drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 retested the 5057 area today and that is
currently the lower, short-term, trend-line for the Index (depending on the
scales used when one draws the chart). The Index improved towards the close,
but still closed near the lows for the
day.
We also note that today was a was a statistically-significant,
down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical
parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is
followed by an up-day about 60% of the time.
Bottoms often occur on statistically-significant, down-days, so today
could be the end of a short pullback. Unfortunately, all statistically-significant,
down-days are not bottoms so we can’t be certain that the decline is over. I
think we may see another day or two down before the pullback is over, but we’ll
see
CURRENT
SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, there
were 6 bear-signs and 15-Bull. Monday, there were 4 bear-sign and 18
bull-signs.
-The S&P 500 is 11.9% above its 200-dMA and that’s
slightly below the point where we get a pullback signal. (The Bear indicator is 12%
above the 200-day.)
- All the ETFs I track were still above their respective
200-dMA, today, 3/5/2024. That’s too bullish, so it’s a bearish indicator. This
indicator will be extended for a week.
Repeating from Friday:
My position has been overly bullish since the October low
in 2022. Markets are stretched enough to indicate that some risk management in
the portfolio may soon be necessary.
There are several triggers that would make me sell leveraged positions:
(1) There is a huge up-day that is statistically significant in my system; (2)
the S&P 500 reaches its upper trend-line in the short-term chart from the
October 2023 low; (3) Top indicators warn – i.e., both RSI and Bollinger Bands
are overbought; (4) Indicators deteriorate significantly...
...I need to add another signal that would suggest reducing risk: (5) If the S&P 500 breaks significantly below its lower
trend-line.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined
to HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish, but I will take profits in
leveraged positions if sell signals pop-up.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming
effort and may take awhile. Walmart split 3 for 1 today and that took some
manipulation in the momentum ranking, too.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals
is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not
be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge
from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
SUPREME COURT RULES STATES CAN’T REMOVE TRUMP FROM
BALLOTS (CNBC)
“We conclude that States may disqualify persons holding
or attempting to hold state office,” the ruling said. “But States have no power
under the Constitution to enforce Section 3 with respect to federal offices,
especially the Presidency.” ...All nine Justices agree on the outcome of this
case.” – Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/04/supreme-court-rules-in-trump-colorado-ballot-case.html
TRUMP STILL CLAIMS ELECTION WAS STOLEN
"Do you ever notice they go after the people that
want to find out where the cheating was? And by the way, 82% of the country
understands that it was a rigged election. You can't have a country with that.
A poll came out, 82 percent," – Donald (The Liar) Trump.
My cmt: There is no such poll. Anyone who has considered the claims of
election fraud for more than 5-minutes realizes that Trump’s stolen election
claims are completely fabricated.
BIDEN BORDER VISIT - ITINERARY
“Board AF1, take nap...
...Wake up in place called Brownsville. Read large
teleprompter message, ‘It’s all Trump’s fault...'
...Board AF1, ask who people in green uniforms were, told
they ‘strap’ illegal aliens, express horror, take nap...
...Wake up, call a lid, hit beach, take nap.” - National
Border Patrol Council (Border Patrol Union) makes fun of Biden’s trip to the
border.
STEELE TO TRUMP
“Former RNC chair @MichaelSteele responds to Trump saying “We’re getting rid of the Romney’s
of the world”:
“Game on, Trump. Game on. I’ve
been in this party since 1976. If anyone is the biggest RINO, it’s you…I’m sick
of this crap from these crazy folks that think that they are now the anchor of
Republicanism.” - Posted to “X” (Twitter) by Republicans Against Trump.
RENTING STOCKS (Heritage Capital)
“I am in a rent don’t own phase now where I was all about
owning in size with leverage since September 2022. I don’t hate the stock
market, but it’s had a meteoric rise and risk has really come up along with
bullish sentiment. No more fear and despondency. Now folks are giddy, cocky and
greedy. That tells me to dance closer to the door and not to sit on my hands.”
– Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.1% to 5131.
-VIX rose about 3% to 13.49.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.217%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of
support around the 200 level. If Boeing
drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Monday, the CNBC “Fast Money” crowd (especially Dan Nathan)
were noting some of the leaders, made up of the “Magnificent 7” stocks, are showing
weakness. According to Dan, that puts the rally at risk since the rally has
been concentrated in a few stocks. Yes, it’s a concern, but when I look at the
new, 52-week highs, the data doesn’t support that thesis that the rally is
getting narrower. Today, 288 issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. One needs
to go all the way back to November of 2021 to find a day when more than 288
issues made new highs. However, I do have an issue with the rally.
The rally is due for a pause or pullback because it is
getting too stretched - not because it is getting narrower. Today was actually
a pretty good day. The down day was small. If the S&P 500 goes sideways for
a while, the 200-dMA can catch up and that would eliminate a significant
concern that the rally is too extended.
CURRENT
SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, there
are 4 bear-signs and 18-Bull. Friday, there were 6 bear-sign and 17
bull-signs.
The most significant BEAR signs have not changed much:
-The S&P 500 is 13.2% above its 200-dMA. Markets are
getting stretched. (The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
- All the ETFs I track were still above their respective
200-dMA, today, 3/4/2024. That’s too bullish, so it’s a bearish indicator. This
indicator will be extended for a week.
Repeating from Friday:
My position has been overly bullish since the October low
in 2022. Markets are stretched enough to indicate that some risk management in
the portfolio may soon be necessary.
There are several triggers that would make me sell leveraged positions:
(1) There is a huge up-day that is statistically significant in my system; (2)
the S&P 500 reaches its upper trend-line in the short-term chart from the
October 2023 low; (3) Top indicators warn – i.e., both RSI and Bollinger Bands
are overbought; (4) Indicators deteriorate significantly.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are positive; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish, but I will take profits in
leveraged positions if sell signals pop-up.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS
(Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming
effort and may take awhile.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals
is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not
be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge
from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
https://michaelramirez.substack.com/p/michael-ramirez-guest-essay-putin?r=ntzh3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
My cmt: I remember that Kruschev took off his shoe and
pounded it on a table as he screamed “We will bury you” at the United Nations.
There were other occasions when he made this statement, but the UN incident
made Life magazine. There are apologists who now claim the statement was not
translated properly. Perhaps, but I
assure you he was not saying “We love the west.” Putin is simply following the
old Russian narrative. My opinion: It is impossible that the US will not
continue to support Ukraine...unless Trump is elected. Trump’s comments show
his lack of understanding of international affairs.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“The problem isn't that Johnny can't read. The problem
isn't even that Johnny can't think. The problem is that Johnny doesn't know
what thinking is; he confuses it with feeling.” ― Thomas Sowell
SUPREME COURT HAD TO HEAR THE TRUMP CASE (WSJ)
“Many observers thought the Supreme Court would decline
to consider Donald
Trump’s claim that presidential immunity shields him from prosecution for
his conduct on Jan. 6, 2021... but the justices had little choice but to take
up this question because the lower court’s ruling was so sweeping and
dangerous. Mr. Trump claims that his allegedly criminal actions were “official
acts” taken as president. The U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of
Columbia held that it didn’t matter if they were—that no president is entitled
to immunity from “generally applicable criminal laws.” That decision violates
the separation of powers, threatens the independence and vigor of the
presidency, and is inconsistent with Supreme Court precedent.” – David B. Rivkin Justice Department and White
House Counsel official during the Reagan and George H.W. Bush Administrations.
Elizabeth Price Foley, professor of constitutional law at Florida
International University. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-justices-had-to-hear-trumps-case-presidential-immunity-125803c6
FBI ARRESTS “JOURNALIST” (Newsweek via MSN)
“Supporters of Donald Trump's
Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement voiced their outrage on social media
on Friday after investigative reporter Steve Baker was arrested by the Federal
Bureau of Investigation...
...Baker is facing charges of Knowingly Entering or
Remaining in any Restricted Building or Grounds Without Lawful Authority,
Disorderly and Disruptive Conduct in a Restricted Building or Ground,
Disorderly Conduct in a Capitol Building, and Parading, Demonstrating, or
Picketing in a Capitol Building.” Story at...
FBI
Arresting Reporter Sparks MAGA Outrage (msn.com)
My cmt: “Disorderly Conduct... Parading, Demonstrating,
or Picketing” – Doesn’t sound like journalistic activity to me.
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.8 percent in
February, down 1.3 percentage points from the 49.1 percent recorded in January.
The overall economy continued in expansion for the 46th month after one month
of contraction in April 2020... the share of sector GDP registering a composite
PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall
manufacturing weakness — was 1 percent in February, compared to 27 percent in
January and 48 percent in December. Among the top six industries by
contribution to manufacturing GDP in February, none had a PMI® at or below
45 percent, compared to two in the previous month...” Press release at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/february/
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (MorningStar News)
“Construction spending fell in January as U.S. companies
and the government scaled back on projects across the nation amid high interest
rates. Spending on construction projects fell 0.2% in January to $2.1 trillion,
the Commerce Department reported Friday.
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240301269/construction-spending-falls-for-the-first-time-since-december-2022
My cmt: This is surprising, considering the trillion-dollar
infrastructure spending that should be getting underway. Spending on
construction had not declined since 2020.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 5137.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 13.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.186%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
Salesforce reported and beat on earnings and revenue. CRM
was up 3% on Thursday.
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of
support around the 200 level. If Boeing
drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 6 bear-signs and 17-Bull. Last week,
there were 7 bear-sign and 16 bull-signs.
The most significant BEAR signs have not changed much:
-The S&P 500 is 13.5% above its 200-dMA. Markets are
getting stretched. (The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
- All the ETFs I track were above their respective
200-dMA, today, 3/1/2024. That’s too bullish, so it’s a bearish indicator. This
indicator will be extended for a week.
-Bollinger
Bands are overbought. RSI is not, so I tend to
ignore this one unless RSI joins the bear party.
On the BULL side:
-MACD of S&P 500 price has flip-flopped recently, but
it made a bullish crossover 29 Feb.
-61% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the
last 10-days. (45-55% is neutral.)
NEUTRAL indicators include:
-9.6% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week
highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 1 March 2024. (There is no
bullish signal for this indicator, but this is a good, higher than average
number that reinforces the notion that breadth is healthy with decent
participation in the advance.)
-RSI remains in neutral territory.
My stock portfolio positioning has been overly bullish since the October low
in 2022. Markets are stretched enough to indicate that some risk management in
the portfolio may soon be necessary. There
are several triggers that would make me sell leveraged positions: (1) There is
a huge up-day that is statistically significant in my system; (2) the S&P
500 reaches its upper trend-line in the short-term chart from the October 2023
low; (3) Top indicators warn – i.e., both RSI and Bollinger Bands are
overbought; (4) Indicators deteriorate significantly.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE was positive; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish,, but my plan is to take
profits in leveraged positions as noted above.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming
effort and may take awhile. Walmart split 3 for 1 today and that took some
manipulation in the momentum ranking, too.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals
is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not
be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge
from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
