Trump Should be in Jail - Jim Young, Republican ... ISM Non-Manufacturing ... Factory Orders ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“I came away from the [Liz Cheney’s] book ["Oath and Honor, a Memoir, and a Warning] thinking that Liz Cheney is an intelligent, highly organized, honest and patriotic American citizen. Her most impressive attribute is that she is a politician for whom honoring the Constitution and the rule of law comes above all else, including her own political career. She readily sacrificed her career as a member of Congress in order to communicate the truth.” - Jim Young, in his Op-Ed in the Oklahoman.
 
CHENEY’S BOOK CHANGED MY MIND (The Oklahoman)"
“I voted for Donald Trump — twice. I am a staunch, almost redneck conservative, registered Republican, Oklahoman and American... I believe that Joe Biden and his followers in Washington have been in the top five of the worst political leaders we have ever seen in this country’s history... However, recently, for some reason, I purchased and downloaded a book by Liz Cheney titled "Oath and Honor, a Memoir and a Warning."...
...After reading Liz Cheney’s book, the committee findings and the DOJ indictment, I do not understand how Donald Trump can possibly be considered as a legitimate candidate for the most important job in the world. Frankly, I don’t understand how he is not in jail right now." – Jim Young, Guest Columnist.
https://www.oklahoman.com/story/opinion/2024/03/03/opinion-guest-republican-trump-supporter-liz-cheney-book-2024-election/72743082007/
 
MITCH McCONNELL ON TRUMP’S IMPEACHMENT IN 2021 (NY Times)
“Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, has told associates that he believes President Trump committed impeachable offenses and that he is pleased that Democrats are moving to impeach him, believing that it will make it easier to purge him from the party, according to people familiar with his thinking.” Story at...
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/us/mitch-mcconnell-trump-impeachment.html
My cmt: The above is why Trump hates McConnell. McConnell was unable to convince a sufficient number of his fellow republican Senators to impeach Trump, so he voted with the majority to acquit Trump in the Insurrection Impeachment.
 
FACTORY ORDERS (US News)
“Factory orders fell 3.6% after slipping 0.3% in December, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Tuesday... They decreased 1.6% year-on-year in January.” Story at...
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2024-03-05/us-factory-orders-fall-more-than-expected-in-january
The drop in Factory orders was higher than anticipated by Economists.
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the services sector expanded in February for the 14th consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 52.6 percent...  0.8 percentage point lower than January’s reading of 53.4 percent... The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions.” Story at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/february/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 fell about 1% to 5079.
-VIX rose about 7% to 14.46.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.156%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
 
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of support around the 200 level.  If Boeing drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 retested the 5057 area today and that is currently the lower, short-term, trend-line for the Index (depending on the scales used when one draws the chart). The Index improved towards the close, but still closed  near the lows for the day.
 
We also note that today was a was a statistically-significant, down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time.  Bottoms often occur on statistically-significant, down-days, so today could be the end of a short pullback. Unfortunately, all statistically-significant, down-days are not bottoms so we can’t be certain that the decline is over. I think we may see another day or two down before the pullback is over, but we’ll see
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, there were 6 bear-signs and 15-Bull. Monday, there were 4 bear-sign and 18 bull-signs.
 
-The S&P 500 is 11.9% above its 200-dMA and that’s slightly below the point where we get a pullback signal. (The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
 
- All the ETFs I track were still above their respective 200-dMA, today, 3/5/2024. That’s too bullish, so it’s a bearish indicator. This indicator will be extended for a week.
 
Repeating from Friday:
My position has been overly bullish since the October low in 2022. Markets are stretched enough to indicate that some risk management in the portfolio may soon be necessary.  There are several triggers that would make me sell leveraged positions: (1) There is a huge up-day that is statistically significant in my system; (2) the S&P 500 reaches its upper trend-line in the short-term chart from the October 2023 low; (3) Top indicators warn – i.e., both RSI and Bollinger Bands are overbought; (4) Indicators deteriorate significantly...  
 
...I need to add another signal that would suggest reducing risk: (5) If the S&P 500 breaks significantly below its lower trend-line.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined to HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish, but I will take profits in leveraged positions if sell signals pop-up.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming effort and may take awhile. Walmart split 3 for 1 today and that took some manipulation in the momentum ranking, too.
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.