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Monday, November 10, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

TRUMP WAS ON THE BALLOT (WSJ)
“Mr. Trump was on the ballot—not literally, but nonetheless as the main motivating force behind a dominating Democratic turnout. Winning Democratic candidates for Governor in New Jersey and Virginia linked their opponents to Mr. Trump, driving Democratic voters to the polls and erasing the GOP gains in 2024 among Hispanics, black men and independents. The result was a much bigger Democratic triumph than polls predicted... The electorate gave Mr. Trump another term because he pledged to lower prices and raise real incomes. But his economic record is mixed at best. Inflation is stuck at 3%. Yet Mr. Trump causes damage with his mercurial tariffs, and then he demands the Federal Reserve slas. Opinion at...h interest rates to compensate for it. Meantime, he pursues polarizing distractions from his mandate, such as ordering the National Guard into cities that don’t want it and lobbying for indictments of his political opponents.
The 2025 election was a warning from the voters. If Republicans don’t adapt, the GOP is sure to lose its House majority and the Senate could be in play too.” – The Editorial Board, WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/2025-elections-donald-trump-gop-democrats-mikie-sherrill-abigail-spanberger-f9729d9d?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqcNBogsG5Li6zW47cGOVGT4RC7IOjD2OcPQfXOgDOoB2zY7d1FDlfAEAw2J2ZM%3D&gaa_ts=690fc658&gaa_sig=M51MoHXzu9Y2bFnYFXwGo9_HWVHp7-XpU_h6LzJ-NUOQb9I5CEmIhRLUtIX7RhDAFCSW1EHLRcZyUJ80KtAKtA%3D%3D

WARNING FOR MILLIONS OF RETIREMENT SAVERS (WSJ)
“The U.S. Real Estate Investment Fund is an example of a private or “alternative” fund that invests not in publicly traded stocks or bonds, but in assets that generally don’t have market prices. Wall Street lobbyists and the Trump administration are pushing to make such investments much more widely available, including in 401(k) and other retirement plans...
...As I’ve pointed out before, small investors aren’t positioned like giant institutions such as universities, charitable endowments and big pension plans.
Such institutions are likely to be perpetual; you won’t be. They have many sources of revenue (tuition, donations and grants); you probably don’t. They have in-house specialists who analyze alternative investments; you don’t. With billions of dollars in assets, they get access to the world’s best alternative managers; you aren’t likely to.
And, at least in theory, giant institutions should be able to survive almost any bear market and wait out any delay in getting their money back; you might not be.
Many alternative investments take seven to 12 years or more to pay off, if they do. In the meantime, if you want—or need—to get some or all of your money out, you may well be stuck...
...Generations of investors are accustomed to being able to get their money back whenever they ask for it. Before you play Wall Street’s new game, make sure you understand that it doesn’t follow the old rules.” – Jason Zweig, Financial Journalist and WSJ Columnist. Advice at...
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/this-small-town-pension-fund-has-a-warning-for-millions-of-retirement-savers-24ed0112?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqes1__ooc1znIjmgLIKYI83rlDKY0qyd0J47RWMXRA6hHk_d9c_T0eUgJszdJU%3D&gaa_ts=69113e85&gaa_sig=12JqODlG2In_sFyx-L3P9BkqeGUk9RSSr3-_1CiMF_MuZrf0m6XvAavPGJsxXGIMLakxarRmmVweF0etA95PPA%3D%3D

CRASH COMING IN AI (Benzinga)
“Legendary investor Mark Mobius, founder of Mobius Capital Partners, has warned of a major correction looming in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Mobius said valuations in leading AI companies have reached “excessive” levels and could see a decline of up to 40%. “When I look at a correction, I look at 30%, down 30%, 40%,” he said, noting that while he remains bullish on AI’s long-term prospects, the short-term risks are real.” Story at...
40% Market Crash Coming, Warns Big Investor

RETAIL SALES (NRF)
“Retail sales bounced back in October with both monthly and year-over-year gains as consumers geared up for the holiday season... Total retail sales (including restaurants but excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations) increased 0.6% month over month and up 5% year over year in October." Report from...
https://chainstoreage.com/nrf-retail-sales-rise-october-consumer-spending-remains-solid

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.5% to 6832.
-VIX declined about 8% to 17.6.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.122% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – SOLD 11/7
XLK – SOLD 11/7

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 17 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -16 to -11 (11 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.

We did not see the S&P 500 close below its 50-dMA again so a trend change for the index was not confirmed.

Monday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time, With that in mind. I will wait to see how the markets settle out. I am not convinced that the recent market weakness was all about the shutdown, but of course, it might have been. Therefore, I’ll watch to determine where markets are going. Straight up? The S&P 500 is less than 1% from its all-time high. A new -high would give us some new information.

Is a correction underway? If the market weakness was all about the shutdown we might conclude no; so let’s see what happens in the next day or two.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bearish; I’ll took profits in my XLK and SPY positions Friday. Was I right? We’ll have to wait and see.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

As of Friday, my invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Friday, November 7, 2025

Consumer Confidence ... Jobs Data ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Consumer sentiment fell back about 6% this November, led by a 17% drop in current personal finances and a 11% decline in year-ahead expected business conditions. With the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy. This month’s decline in sentiment was widespread throughout the population, seen across age, income, and political affiliation... Year-ahead inflation expectations inched up from 4.6% last month to 4.7% this month and remained well below readings in May in the wake of the initial announcements of major tariff changes.” Report at...
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

ALTERNATE SOURCES FOR JOBS DATA (YahooFinance)
“Job postings are down, according to job search platform Indeed, and data on the pace of new jobs being added is mixed. The economy either added a meager amount of positions in October, according to private payroll processor ADP, or shed them by a small amount, workforce intelligence firm Revelio Labs found. On the other hand, layoffs seem to be mounting — last month was the worst October for job cut announcements since 2003, according to a report released Thursday from the global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. But the unemployment rate this year has so far been relatively stable amid a shrinking pool of available workers, and an estimate from the Chicago Fed...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/theres-no-jobs-report-today-heres-what-it-mightve-shown-133019495.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6729.
-VIX declined about 2% to 19.08.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly to 4.093% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – SOLD 11/7
XLK – SOLD 11/7

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 3 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

The S&P 500 improved after noon so it looks like I sold near the low. Ouch! We’ll find out Monday if the buying continues. Jim Lebanthal, CNBC contributor, was convinced that this market weakness is due to the Government shutdown. That might explain the bounce in the afternoon since news came out that there was a proposal from Democrats to end the shutdown. Democrats wanted to extend government subsidies to health insurance companies for a year. That would push the Medicare subsidies until the mid-term elections when the Dems suspect they will regain the majority in Congress. Then they could try to make the subsidies permanent. Republicans declined the offer.

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.

Some indicators improved after my noon check of the indicators. Some got worse. First, the indicators that improved to Bullish: (1) The 50-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE moved above 50% sending a bullish sign; (2) up-volume rose at a faster pace. (3) The 100-dMA of breadth remained bullish. Those are now the three bullish indicators.

Both the Hindenburg Omen and the Fosback Hi/Low Logic Index became more bearish. There are now 7 Hindenburg Omens in the last 8 days. Even though indicators improved, they are still very weak.

I had to go back to 25 February of this year to find a day when there were only 3 Bullish indicators. That was 4 days after the top of the 19% correction that bottomed in April 2025. There were also 3 bull indicators 5 days before the bottom of that correction. Indicators are still suggesting a correction.

On the other hand, I probably would not have sold my positions had I known that the markets would recover in the afternoon. The afternoon is when the Smart Money makes decisions, so today, I was the Dumb Money. Given the indicators, it may not be too dumb... we’ll see. The S&P 500 did close below its 50-dMA. Another close below the 50-day Monday would confirm the change in trend.

I still suspect the market is in correction mode. I’ve been saying that a correction now would likely be less than 10%. I think the odds of a less than 10% decline are lower now based on the rapidly falling indicators. Still, the Index is 9.8% above its 200-dMA and that’s a strong level of support so a 10% correction makes perfect sense.

The odds are probably still pretty good that the decline won’t be as high as 20%. It doesn’t seem like the bull market is over. Bull markets end with euphoria – not with a whimper.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bearish; I’ll took profits in my XLK and SPY positions. Am I right? We’ll have to wait and see.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Selling Some Stock

Based on data around noon, my indicator Spread (Bull minus Bears) dropped to -20 (20 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I now have only 1 Bull indicator: the 100-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE is above 50%.

This suggests a correction is underway. The S&P 500 is down more than 1% in three of the last four days. That includes today around mid-day. Looks like a correction to me.

I sold my trading positions: XLK gain was about 8%; S&P 500 (SPY) gain was about 3%. Those aren’t great gains except that that gain is over about 2-months. Annualized, they are excellent.

I am now about 40% invested in stocks, including Stocks, ETFs and Mutual Funds, a defensive position.

Thursday, November 6, 2025

Challenger Layoffs ... Dallas Fed Business Outlook ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -10 to -16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.

Over the last 3 years, it is unusual to see a -16 spread this soon after an all-time high. In recent history, it hasn’t happened. I have only 3 years of data on the Bull-Bear spread so we can’t conclude too much from this stat, but it does make one wonder. The last time there was a -16 in the first 4 days of a correction was the April 2025 19% decline.

The Fosback Hi/Low Logic Index did turn bearish Thursday. The last time this indicator was bearish was also during the 19% decline in April of this year after the S&P 500 had dropped about 4%. The Fosback New-high/New-low Logic Index uses a methodology similar to the Hindenburg Omen so today’s results from the Hindenburg Omen calculations are not a surprise.

Ruh-Roh... More of the same... Thursday there was another Hindenburg Omen. That’s Six in the last seven days.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.

As previously noted: Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. Now we have seen 5 in 6 days. It’s a cluster.

There are now only 4 Bullish indicators: 2 are momentum indicators and will respond to drops in the S&P 500; 1 is a breadth indicator that will respond to declining issues outpacing advancing issues; the last, is the spread between Utilities and the S&P 500. That one has been flopping back and forth so it can be ignored.

Indicators are very weak and I’m tempted to reduce some stock holdings. For confirmation, let’s look at the chart. We see that the S&P 500 is only 0.8% above its 50-dMA. That’s a line in the sand. A drop below the 50-dMA would be confirmation that it’s time to sell some stock. In the mean time, I’ll probably cut my position in XLK if we see another big down-day Friday.

I’ve been saying that a correction now would likely be less than 10%. I think the odds of a less than 10% decline are lower now based on the rapidly falling indicators. Still, the Index is 9.7% above its 200-dMA and that’s a strong level of support so a 10% correction makes perfect sense.

The odds are probably still pretty good that the decline won’t be as high as 20%. It doesn’t seem like the bull market is over. Bull markets end with euphoria – not with a whimper.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bearish; I’ll take profits in my XLK position if declines continue. Beyond that, I’ll watch the chart and indicators.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, November 5, 2025

ADP Employment ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -9 to -10 (10 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.

Ruh-Roh... More of the same... Wednesday there was another Hindenburg Omen. That’s Five in the last six days.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.

As previously noted: Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. Now we have seen 5 in 6 days. Looks like a cluster to me.

The Fosback New-high/New-low Logic Index uses a methodology similar to the Hindenburg Omen. Fosback’s indicator is still neutral, but just barely. Even if internals are fairly neutral, Thursday could send the Fosback indicator into “sell” mode. I don’t act on one signal, but I am reminded that this indicator called the Covid Pandemic top (before the 35% bear market) to the day.

There are now only 7 Bullish indicators: 4 are momentum indicators and will respond to drops in the S&P 500; 2 are breadth indicators that will respond to declining issues outpacing advancing issues; the last, a Follow-thru Day, would be canceled by a big down-day that meets the test for a Distribution Day. It wouldn’t take much for indicators to suggest reducing stock positions.

As noted yesterday, if we do see a correction, I expect it to be less than 10% based on past history... But, if there are no bull indicators, I would be inclined to reduce stock holdings. I don’t think small corrections are correlated to Zero bull-signs. Indicators aren’t there yet so no need to try and predict which way they will go.

The S&P 500 is 1.4% below its all-time high; 2% above its 50-dMA; and 11% above its 200-dMA.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, leaning bearish, but I won’t make any portfolio changes at this point - watching indicators.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, November 4, 2025

Job Openings ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ..

“No. No. That’s not true...That’s impossible.”

“Search your feelings, you know it to be true.”

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

DEMOCRATS CONTINUE TO BLACKMAIL THE COUNTRY (CNN)
“Some of the most prominent liberals in Congress are seething at an emerging deal to end the 35-day government funding stalemate without a clear win for Democrats, showcasing a massive splinter within the party that will soon be on full display.
The divide among Democrats inside the Capitol over strategy offers a gloomy portrait of how a possible deal could land in the broader party — likely spurring ugly infighting at a critical moment as Democrats are seeking to define their future ahead of the pivotal 2026 midterms.” Story at...
Outraged liberals warn Democratic leaders not to cave on shutdown
My cmt: By Senate rules, it takes 60 votes to pass anything in the Senate. So even though the Republicans have a majority, they cannot end the shutdown unless some Democrats vote with the Republicans. The Republicans have been voting to keep Government running since day one.

IF SHUTDOWN CONTINUES – “MASS CHAOS” IN AIR TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE (Reuters)
“U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned on Tuesday that if the federal government shutdown continues another week it could lead to "mass chaos" and could force him to close some of the national airspace to air traffic, a drastic move that could upend American aviation.” Story at...
Shutdown may force US to close some airspace next week, official sees 'mass chaos'

FACT SET EARNINGS INSIGHT (FACTSET - Excerpt)
“-Earnings Growth: For Q3 2025, the blended (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 10.7%. If 10.7% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 4th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index...
-...Earnings Guidance: For Q4 2025, 28 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 21 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance.
-Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 22.9. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (18.6).” Report at...
https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_103125.pdf

JOB OPENINGS LOWEST IN FOUR YEARS (CNBC)
“Employment opportunities hit their lowest level in more than 4½ years as October came to a close and the government shutdown dragged on, according to data from jobs site Indeed... Under normal conditions, the BLS on Tuesday would have reported its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, a measure that Federal Reserve officials watch closely for indications of slack in the jobs market. With the shutdown on the precipice of being the longest in history, economists and policymakers are left to look at alternative data for big-picture indicators.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/04/job-openings-in-october-slumped-to-the-lowest-level-since-early-february-indeed-measure-shows.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 1.2% to 6772.
-VIX rose about 11% to 19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.07% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -7 to -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.

Even though internals were bad today (declining issues twice advancing issues; declining volume more than 3 times advancing volume; New-lows were more than twice new-highs) there were some signs that weren’t completely bearish:
-We didn’t see another Hindenburg Omen. Four in a row was bad enough. The nature of the Hindenburg requires that it remain place until the McClellan Oscillator tuns positive, i.e., the Hindenburg Omen is still sending a bearish signal.

-Tuesday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time,

-The S&P 500 closed near its lower trend line. - a line of support - although the Index is still 1.8% above its 50-dMA and that is usually in the vicinity of the lower trendline.

It is difficult to analyze a falling market that didn’t make a blow-off top. If the market just drifts down, do we go or do we stay? I am inclined to stay until lines of support fail and indicators clearly collapse. As noted yesterday, if we do see a correction, I expect it to be less than 10% based on past history.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, leaning bearish, but I won’t make any portfolio changes at this point.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, November 3, 2025

ISM Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Political Suicide” By Michael Ramirez, Las Vegas Review-Journal at...
https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/michael-ramirez/cartoon-shutdown-politics-3471024/?utm_campaign=widget&utm_medium=latest&utm_source=opinion_michael-ramirez_page_2&utm_term=CARTOON%3A%20Shutdown%20politics

Washington DC: “You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.” – Obi-Wan

NO PLAN TO END SHUTDOWN (Daily Caller)
“One month into Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s decision to spark a government shutdown, Democrats are reading from separate playbooks about how to end the standoff. Though more Democrats appear ready to end the weeks-long stalemate as soon as next week, few lawmakers appear to share the same victory scenario if the caucus relents in their hardball tactics. The Daily Caller News Foundation asked more than a dozen Senate Democrats to specify their demands to reopen the government but none gave the same answer.. “They’ve dug themselves in a hole and now they’re trying to figure out how to get out of it,” Republican Indiana Sen. Jim Banks told the DCNF. “I expect that after election day is over next week, then they can get serious about untangling their pretzel and reopening the government.” Story at...
‘Dug Themselves In A Hole’: Democrats Have No Clear Plan To End Schumer Shutdown

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

ANOTHER FED CUT NOT CERTAIN (Bloomberg)
“Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said he wants to see more data before making a decision about how to vote at the central bank’s December meeting, but warned he’s more concerned about inflation than the labor market right now.
‘I’m not decided going into the December meeting,” Goolsbee said Monday on Yahoo Finance. ‘I am nervous about the inflation side of the ledger, where you’ve seen inflation above the target for four and a half years and it’s trending the wrong way.’” Story at...
Fed’s Goolsbee More Worried by Inflation Than Job Market

ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM^® Manufacturing PMI^® Report... "The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 48.7 percent in October, a 0.4-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 49.1 percent recorded in September. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 66th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI^® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-48-7-october-2025-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302601422.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 6852.
-VIX declined about 2% to 17.17.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.108% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +2 to -7 (7 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it reversed down, a BEARSH sign.

Ruh-Roh... Monday there was another Hindenburg Omen.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.

Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. Now we have seen 4 in a row. Looks like a cluster to me. The Fosback New-high/New-low Logic Index uses a methodology similar to the Hindenburg Omen. Fosback’s indicator is still neutral. Still, it may be time to worry a little. Fosback’s indicator doesn’t signal very often although it called the top of the Covid Pandemic Bear market to the day. There are other worrying bear signs.

The S&P 500 is again 12% above its 200-dMA. 10-15% signals a trouble area for this indicator and 12% is a sell signal in my system. The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE dropped below 50% indicating that less than half of issues on the NYSE have been up over the last 2 week – another Bear sign.

At the most recent high on the S&P 500 last week, 4.1% of issue on the NYSE made new 52-week highs and other measures of breadth were ok. That suggests, but does not guarantee, that a correction now (if one were to occur) would be a decline of 10% or less.

Both Fed Chair Powell and now Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (see article above) are throwing cold water on a rate cut in December. That may pressure markets some. With indicators declining, it appears that the S&P 500 wants to decline to its lower trend line.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, leaning bearish, but I won’t make any portfolio changes at this point.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)