“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Mr. Trump was on the ballot—not literally, but nonetheless as the main motivating force behind a dominating Democratic turnout. Winning Democratic candidates for Governor in New Jersey and Virginia linked their opponents to Mr. Trump, driving Democratic voters to the polls and erasing the GOP gains in 2024 among Hispanics, black men and independents. The result was a much bigger Democratic triumph than polls predicted... The electorate gave Mr. Trump another term because he pledged to lower prices and raise real incomes. But his economic record is mixed at best. Inflation is stuck at 3%. Yet Mr. Trump causes damage with his mercurial tariffs, and then he demands the Federal Reserve slas. Opinion at...h interest rates to compensate for it. Meantime, he pursues polarizing distractions from his mandate, such as ordering the National Guard into cities that don’t want it and lobbying for indictments of his political opponents.
The 2025 election was a warning from the voters. If Republicans don’t adapt, the GOP is sure to lose its House majority and the Senate could be in play too.” – The Editorial Board, WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/2025-elections-donald-trump-gop-democrats-mikie-sherrill-abigail-spanberger-f9729d9d?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqcNBogsG5Li6zW47cGOVGT4RC7IOjD2OcPQfXOgDOoB2zY7d1FDlfAEAw2J2ZM%3D&gaa_ts=690fc658&gaa_sig=M51MoHXzu9Y2bFnYFXwGo9_HWVHp7-XpU_h6LzJ-NUOQb9I5CEmIhRLUtIX7RhDAFCSW1EHLRcZyUJ80KtAKtA%3D%3D
“The U.S. Real Estate Investment Fund is an example of a private or “alternative” fund that invests not in publicly traded stocks or bonds, but in assets that generally don’t have market prices. Wall Street lobbyists and the Trump administration are pushing to make such investments much more widely available, including in 401(k) and other retirement plans...
...As I’ve pointed out before, small investors aren’t positioned like giant institutions such as universities, charitable endowments and big pension plans.
Such institutions are likely to be perpetual; you won’t be. They have many sources of revenue (tuition, donations and grants); you probably don’t. They have in-house specialists who analyze alternative investments; you don’t. With billions of dollars in assets, they get access to the world’s best alternative managers; you aren’t likely to.
And, at least in theory, giant institutions should be able to survive almost any bear market and wait out any delay in getting their money back; you might not be.
Many alternative investments take seven to 12 years or more to pay off, if they do. In the meantime, if you want—or need—to get some or all of your money out, you may well be stuck...
...Generations of investors are accustomed to being able to get their money back whenever they ask for it. Before you play Wall Street’s new game, make sure you understand that it doesn’t follow the old rules.” – Jason Zweig, Financial Journalist and WSJ Columnist. Advice at...
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/this-small-town-pension-fund-has-a-warning-for-millions-of-retirement-savers-24ed0112?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqes1__ooc1znIjmgLIKYI83rlDKY0qyd0J47RWMXRA6hHk_d9c_T0eUgJszdJU%3D&gaa_ts=69113e85&gaa_sig=12JqODlG2In_sFyx-L3P9BkqeGUk9RSSr3-_1CiMF_MuZrf0m6XvAavPGJsxXGIMLakxarRmmVweF0etA95PPA%3D%3D
“Legendary investor Mark Mobius, founder of Mobius Capital Partners, has warned of a major correction looming in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Mobius said valuations in leading AI companies have reached “excessive” levels and could see a decline of up to 40%. “When I look at a correction, I look at 30%, down 30%, 40%,” he said, noting that while he remains bullish on AI’s long-term prospects, the short-term risks are real.” Story at...
40% Market Crash Coming, Warns Big Investor
“Retail sales bounced back in October with both monthly and year-over-year gains as consumers geared up for the holiday season... Total retail sales (including restaurants but excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations) increased 0.6% month over month and up 5% year over year in October." Report from...
https://chainstoreage.com/nrf-retail-sales-rise-october-consumer-spending-remains-solid
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.5% to 6832.
-VIX declined about 8% to 17.6.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.122% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – SOLD 11/7
XLK – SOLD 11/7
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 17 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -16 to -11 (11 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.
I’m bearish; I’ll took profits in my XLK and SPY positions Friday. Was I right? We’ll have to wait and see.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
