WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) —
“The U.S. economy created just 115,000 jobs in April as hiring slacked off for
a second straight month, according to the government’s latest employment
figures. The unemployment rate edged
lower to 8.1% from 8.2%, but it fell because more people stopped looking for
work. Some 342,000 people dropped out of the labor force to mark the second
decline in a row, the Labor Department said Friday.” Full story at:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-economy-gains-115000-jobs-in-april-2012-05-04
CNBC reported that 40% of
the unemployed have been unemployed for more than 3-years. It is no wonder that
such a large number stopped looking for work.
That’s really depressing when you think about it.
The only good news was that
employment was revised up for the past 2-months. It looks like hiring started early this year
based on the warm weather. It does not
now appear that the high numbers earlier were due to bad data.
A day like today is uncomfortable, but it could have been worse. Volume was equal to the average volume over the last month and little changed from the past several months. Average volume on the pullback makes it look like investors aren’t worried …yet… but basically that is good news. I’ll just have to watch for the trend next week.
The S&P 500 is about
3.5% below the recent top of 1419 so the damage is not too bad yet. The S&P 500 is about 7% above its 200-dMA,
and that remains a possible low if there isn’t really bad news. Since the S&P 500 broke its bottom trend line,
a drop of about 7% more looks likely.
THE MARKET
The S&P 500 reaction was
DOWN 1.6% Friday to 1369. VIX rose 9% to
19.16.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis remained
HOLD today, Friday, but it could flip to sell if the S&P 500 continues down.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I bought back into the stock market at S&P
500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in the long-term portfolio
(and 100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” –
the link is on the right side of this page).
100% in stocks is quite extreme so don’t do it unless you have a high
tolerance for risk.
