Thursday, May 3, 2012

More Unemployment Numbers and the ISM Supply Data

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- "Fewer Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, a welcome sign after claims had previously risen four weeks in a row....About 365,000 people filed for their first week of jobless benefits, a significant drop from 392,000 claims filed the week before, the Labor Department said."  Full story at
http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/03/news/economy/jobless-claims/index.htm?iid=HP_Highlight
 
The expectation was for 375,000 initial claims according to Briefing .com.
 
From Yahoo Finance"
"The Institute for Supply Management said its services index fell to 53.5 last month from 56.0 in March, missing economists' forecasts for a modest decline to 55.5...The forward-looking new orders index dropped to 53.5 from 58.8, while the employment gauge slipped to the lowest level since December at 54.2 from 56.7..."We're seeing some softness in the economy after a good start to the year," said Gary Thayer, chief macro strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis." Full story at…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobless-claims-tumble-may-calm-123228569.html

THE MARKET
The S&P 500 was DOWN 3/4% Thursday to 1392.  VIX rose 4% to 17.56.

NTSM
The NTSM analysis switched to HOLD today, Thursday.  The reason was the rise in the VIX.  

MY INVESTED POSITION
I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long-term portfolio (and 100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).  100% in stocks is quite extreme so don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.