“We still see
U.S. 10yr yields – even now making new all-time lows – falling below 1% as hard
landings occur in China and the US. The secular equity valuation bear market
began in 2000 and renewed global recession will be the trigger to catalyze the
third, and hopefully final, gut-wrenching phase of valuation de-rating Expect the S&P 500 to decline decisivley. Expect
the S&P500 to decline decisively below its March 2009, 666 intra-day low.
All hope will be crushed.” - Albert Edwards, currently the Societe Generale strategist but
previously at Dresdner Kleinwort
Story at: http://www.businessinsider.com/albert-edwards-nobody-is-laughing-at-me-anymore-the-stock-market-will-collapse-and-all-hope-will-be-lost-2012-5#ixzz1wSkvvIAT
Story at: http://www.businessinsider.com/albert-edwards-nobody-is-laughing-at-me-anymore-the-stock-market-will-collapse-and-all-hope-will-be-lost-2012-5#ixzz1wSkvvIAT
He’s been a bear for a
long time; he could be right…but when will this happen? That’s the part we don’t
know.
MARKET
The S&P 500 fell 0.23%
Thursday to 1310. VIX fell 0.33% to 24.06.
I’m still waiting to see if the market
will drop below its most recent low of 1295.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis remained
HOLD today, Thursday.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I reduced my stock
holdings to 30% (0% in stock in the 401k) at S&P 1358 after the SELL signal
on 9 May 2012. (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the
right side of this page). I cut my stock
position to 15% on 17 May in order to maintain a 10% gain in a
trading/longer-term position I had in the QQQ.
