“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in
the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
“This country was founded by the bayonet;
it survives by the ballot. Those who
falsely disparage the honesty of our elections are striking a blow at the
foundations of our nation and should be charged with sedition.” – Meade Stith
“In my decades of investing experience, I have not seen
such mindless and uninformed speculation as I have witnessed recently. Indeed, in nominal dollar
terms...it is far in excess of the dot.com boom.” – Doug Cass.
CASS FREIGHT INDEX (CASS Information Sysetms)
“The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® was
impacted by the polar vortex event in mid-February, slowing the y/y growth rate
to 4.1% in February...The significant supply side issues will only temporarily
belie the strong demand environment, and considerable acceleration in freight
demand is still most likely. With much easier prior-year comparisons ahead, if
the Cass shipments index just takes a normal seasonal pattern from here, it
will be up over 25% y/y in Q2.” Press release at...
https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/february-2021
THE GHOST OF 2013 (NorthmanTrader)
“What have we learned so far in 2021? Simple: The
relentless liquidity machine remains in full control. In addition to renewed
and larger fiscal stimulus central bankers, including the Fed, have made it
abundantly clear they will keep printing no matter what the data shows, no
matter how much inflation there is (“let it run hot”). The Fed itself continues
on its $120B per month QE program while the ECB has accelerated their
program...perhaps the best analog to the current action is the ghost of 2013...So
if 2013 repeats where can this all head? Steady up of course with 50MA/100MA
tags along the way.” Commentary at...
https://northmantrader.com/2021/03/26/the-ghost-of-2013/
PENSION FUNDS HAVE TO BUY BONDS TO REBALANCE PORTFOLIOS-
THAT MIGHT BE GOOD FOR STOCKS (CNBC)
“Pension funds and other major investors should be big
buyers of bonds during the next week or so, as they rebalance their holdings to
make up for the bond market’s first quarter sell-off. That could send bond
yields lower, at least temporarily.” Story at...
TIME TO BUY BONDS (Real Investment Advice)
Best Tweets for The Week: 3-26-21
(Real Investment Advice)
Story at...
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/whatyoumissed-on-ria-this-week-3-26-21/
WHY I HATE POLITICIANS
While Biden has claimed the migrant surge is Trump’s
fault, one question from ABC blew that theory out of the water:
“Cecilia Vega of ABC News politely nailed him to the wall
on a key failure of his border policy. She told an affecting story of meeting a
nine-year-old boy at the border who had walked to the U.S. from Honduras, and
said that when she called the boy’s mother, the woman explained that she had
sent him to the U.S. because she believed that Biden would let him into the
country. This, of course, is exactly why there’s been a surge at the border.
Biden created an exemption in Title 42 — the public-health authority that
President Trump had used to turn back migrants during the pandemic —
specifically for minors, and predictably there’s been a surge of minors.” Story
at...
https://www.aol.com/news/biden-woeful-press-conference-230539827.html
For the most part, however, the press loved Biden’s “honest
responses” and his lack of “sideshow” performance (compared to Trump).
Unfortunately, fact-checking his press-conference revealed a Liar-in-Chief typical
of all Politicians and especially recent Presidents. See FactCheck.org for a
run-down of Biden Press Conference lies at...
https://www.factcheck.org/2021/03/factchecking-bidens-first-press-conference/
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 5:45pm Monday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers are
on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 fell
about 0.1% to 3971.
-VIX rose about 10% to 20.74.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury rose to 1.715%.
Given the big up-day Friday,
the drop today was expected.
The VIX was up 10% Monday, so
perhaps the Options Folks have decided the pullback is not over. On a longer-term
basis, VIX is falling and is giving a bullish signal.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators
dipped from -1 to -3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the
10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations dropped from -5 to -16
(These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes
in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained BUY. Price & VIX are bullish; Volume &
Sentiment are neutral.
I remain Bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
MONDAY 2 MONTH GAIN
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY 2 MONTH GAIN
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals remained NEGATIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
Using the Short-term indicator
in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold.
The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE
indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test
included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
As of 9 March, my
stock-allocation is about 60% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a retiree, 50% in the stock
market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative
number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; if a correction is deep
enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out of the question.
The markets have not
retested the lows on recent corrections and that left me under-invested on the
bounces. I will need to put less reliance on retests in the future.
