“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in
the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
“This country was founded by the bayonet;
it survives by the ballot. Those who
falsely disparage the honesty of our elections are striking a blow at the
foundations of our nation and should be charged with sedition.” – Meade Stith
1.9 Trillion-dollar, Covid Bill
passes...
CPI (CNBC)
“U.S. consumer prices increased solidly in February as
the cost of gasoline rose further, leading to the biggest annual gain in a
year, but underlying inflation remained tepid amid sluggish demand for services
like airline travel. The Labor Department said on Wednesday its consumer price
index increased 0.4% last month after rising 0.3% in January.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/10/us-consumer-prices-rise-0point4percent-in-february-as-expected.html
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 13.8 million barrels from the
previous week. At 498.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
6% above the five year average for this time of year.” Press release at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
THE FED BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE (Schiff Gold)
“The markets seem to think the Fed is going to fight
inflation. They believe that the central bank will pivot to tighter monetary
policy sooner than expected as inflation heats up, even though Jerome Powell
keeps insisting inflation isn’t really a problem. In a recent podcast, Peter
Schiff said that the truth is the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. It
couldn’t fight inflation even if it wanted to. Doing so would kill the economy.
The only other choice is to surrender to inflation.” Commentary at...
https://schiffgold.com/peters-podcast/peter-schiff-the-fed-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place/
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 6:00pm Wednesday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers
are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose
about 0.6% to 3899.
-VIX fell about 6% to 22.56.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury rose slightly to 1.526%.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators
slipped from +6 to +4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish);
the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -18
to -14 (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend
following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained HOLD. Volume, Sentiment & VIX are neutral; Price
is bullish.
There are not many negative
signs around. We had extremely high, unchanged-volume on the NYSE, today. Some
feel that when the NYSE volume is high for stocks sold without a change in
price, it signals investor confusion and a possible turning point. I’ve tried to develop an indicator based on
this without much success. Sometimes it’s true; sometimes not. The S&P 500
remains relatively stretched above its 200-dMA. I think that will remain
stretched. Investors are focusing on the unprecedented fiscal stimulus and the extreme
FED support keeping interest rates down.
For the time being, I am bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
Market Internals slipped to NEUTRAL on the market. Market
Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they
are often late. They are most useful
when they diverge from the Index.
Using the Short-term indicator
in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold.
The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE
indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test
included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
As of 9 March, my stock-allocation
is about 60% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher or lower %
invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a conservative
position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
The markets have not
retested the lows on recent corrections and that has left me under-invested on
the bounces. I will need to put less reliance on retests in the future.
As a retiree, 50% in the stock
market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative
number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; if a correction is deep
enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out of the question.
