“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in
the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
“This
country was founded by the bayonet; it survives by the ballot. Those who falsely disparage the honesty of
our elections are striking a blow at the foundations of our nation and should
be charged with sedition.” – Meade Stith
JOBLESS CLAIMS (CBSnews)
“The number of Americans applying for unemployment
benefits fell last week but remains historically high. About 712,000 people
filed for jobless aid in the week ended March 6, a drop of 42,000 from
the previous week, the Labor Department said Thursday.” Story at...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/unemployment-jobless-report-2021-03-11/
JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (Advisor Perspectives)
“The number of job openings changed little at 6.9 million
on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Hires were little changed at 5.3 million while total
separations decreased to 5.3 million. Within separations, the quits rate and
layoffs and discharges rate changed little at 2.3 percent and 1.2 percent,
respectively.” Commentary and charts at...
INFLATION SINCE 2000 (Advisor Perspectives)
Chart and discussion at...
THE BULL MARKET IS ON SHAKY GROUND (Real Investment
Advice)
“...we continue to hold slightly higher levels of cash
and continue to focus on basic risk management
controls...While “bearish” concerns are often dismissed when markets
are rising, it does not mean they aren’t valid. Unfortunately, by the time
the “herd” is alerted to a shift in overall sentiment, the stampede
for the exits will already be well underway. Is the current bull market
dead? I don’t know, and trying to predict the market is quite
pointless. The risk for investors is the “willful blindness of
change” until it is far too late to matter. Just remember, no one
thought the “bull market was dead” in 1999 and 2007 either.” – Lance
Roberts. Commentary at...
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-the-bull-market-is-on-shaky-ground/
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 6:00pm Wednesday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers
are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose
about 1% to 3939.
-VIX fell about 3% to 21.91.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury rose to 1.538%.
Today, we completed a bounce
from a 4.2% pullback to all-time highs in 5 days. Woo-woo. It looks like we may
be clear to make 4100 before we hit the top trend line. Today’s advance was broad
with 15.6% of stocks making all-time highs on the NYSE. This is quite different
than the advance during the dot.com bubble that was very narrow at the top. The
% of stocks advancing may narrow out as the market goes higher, but for now, breadth
looks good.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators
jumped from +4 to +11 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish);
the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -14
to +4 (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend
following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator ensemble
improved to BUY. Price and Volume are bullish; Sentiment & VIX are
neutral.
There are not many negative signs
around. The S&P 500 remains relatively stretched above its 200-dMA. I think
that will remain stretched. Investors are focusing on the unprecedented fiscal
stimulus and the extreme FED-support keeping interest rates down.
I remain bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals improved to BULLISH on the market. Market
Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but
they are often late. They are most
useful when they diverge from the Index.
Using the Short-term indicator
in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold.
The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE
indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test
included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
As of 9 March, my stock-allocation
is about 60% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher or lower %
invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a conservative
position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
The markets have not
retested the lows on recent corrections and that left me under-invested on the
bounces. I will need to put less reliance on retests in the future.
As a retiree, 50% in the stock
market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative
number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; if a correction is deep
enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out of the question.
