“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in
the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
“This country was founded by the bayonet;
it survives by the ballot. Those who
falsely disparage the honesty of our elections are striking a blow at the
foundations of our nation and should be charged with sedition.” – Meade Stith
“In my decades of investing experience, I have not seen
such mindless and uninformed speculation as I have witnessed recently. Indeed, in nominal
dollar terms...it is far in excess of the dot.com boom.” – Doug Cass.
$1.9 trillion COVID-19 stimulus bill: “There's more money
in this to bailout union pension funds, than all the money combined for vaccine
distribution and testing.” – Senator Bill Hagerty, Republican, Tennessee.
RETAIL SALES (The Hill)
“Retail sales plummeted by 3 percent in February
according to a report released Tuesday by the Census Bureau, as extreme winter
weather kept people at home.” Story
at...
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (San Diego Tribune)
“Severe winter weather pushed industrial production down
a sharp 2.2% in February, reflecting a big decline in factory output.” Story
at...
CAPACITY UTILIZATION (MarketWatch)
“Capacity utilization fell to 73.8% in February, the
lowest rate since October. The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to
operating the nation’s factories, mines and utilities... Economists think that
the factory sector remains on firm footing.” Story at...
ANOTHER NEW A/D LINE HIGH (McClellan Financial
Publications)
“Gobs of breadth is a good thing. When there is
enough money sloshing around the stock market to lift all boats, that means
there is a rising tide, which is a condition that tends to persist.”
Commentary and charts at...
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/another_new_a-d_line_high/
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website
as of 6:30pm Tuesday.
US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers are on the right side
of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 dipped
about 0.1% to 3966.
-VIX fell about 3% to 19.51.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury rose to 1.617%.
There had been 5 straight up-days so it was not a surprise
to see a down-day today.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators
remained +8 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +34 to +45
(These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes
in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator ensemble
improved to BUY. Price, Volume & VIX are bullish; Sentiment, is neutral. I
haven’t seen the long-term indicator this bullish in about 4-months.
There are not many negative
signs around. The S&P 500 remains relatively stretched above its 200-dMA. I
think that will remain stretched. Investors are focusing on the unprecedented
fiscal stimulus and the extreme FED-support keeping interest rates down.
I remain bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals slipped to NEUTRAL on the market. Market
Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but
they are often late. They are most
useful when they diverge from the Index.
Using the Short-term indicator
in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold.
The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE
indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test
included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
As of 9 March, my
stock-allocation is about 60% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a retiree, 50% in the stock
market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative
number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; if a correction is deep
enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out of the question.
The markets have not
retested the lows on recent corrections and that left me under-invested on the
bounces. I will need to put less reliance on retests in the future.
