“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in
the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
“This country was founded by the bayonet;
it survives by the ballot. Those who
falsely disparage the honesty of our elections are striking a blow at the
foundations of our nation and should be charged with sedition.” – Meade Stith
“In my decades of investing experience, I have not seen
such mindless and uninformed speculation as I have witnessed recently. Indeed, in nominal
dollar terms...it is far in excess of the dot.com boom.” – Doug Cass.
EXISTING HOME SALES (CNBC)
“Closed sales of existing homes in February dropped a
larger-than-expected 6.6% compared with January, according to the National
Association of Realtors.” Story at...
WHAT WE LEARNED FROM THE PANDEMIC - SCIENCE NEEDS BETTER
MARKETING (WSJ)
“I learned that when faced with a common enemy—an enemy
of the entire human species—we regressed to basal, primitive instincts rather
than band together to fight. This was a test run for an alien invasion, and we
failed.” - Neil DeGrasse Tyson. Commentary
at...
NJ COVID INFECTION RATES SHARPLY HIGHER (NY Daily News)
“Gov. Phil Murphy (D-N.J.) ruled out any immediate new
moves to remove coronavirus restrictions in the Garden State as more-contagious
COVID variants have caused infection rates to turn sharply higher. Blaming the
new strains, Murphy even grimly compared the danger to what the tri-state area
faced last winter when the pandemic first slammed the region.” Story at...
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website
as of 6:00pm Monday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers
are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose
about 0.7% to 3941.
-VIX dipped about 10% to 18.88.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury slipped to 1.697%.
Flight to safety? Perhaps. The big stocks and big stock indices
(DJI, S&P 500) outperformed the Russell 2000 by a lot. The NYSE Composite
fell too. These numbers also show up in
the market internals. Only 44% of issues on the NYSE were advancers; only 39%
of the volume was up-volume. The markets have been advancing with a lot of
participation. This narrowing of
participation will be a concern, if it continues. We see it in the indicators,
too.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators
dipped from -1 to -5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the
10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations dropped from +54 to +46
(These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes
in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator ensemble
remained HOLD. Volume is bullish; Price, VIX & Sentiment are neutral.
I remain bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
MONDAY 2 MONTH GAIN
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY 2 MONTH GAIN
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market. Market Internals
are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not
be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are
often late. They are most useful when
they diverge from the Index.
Using the Short-term indicator
in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold.
The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE
indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test
included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
As of 9 March, my
stock-allocation is about 60% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a retiree, 50% in the stock
market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative
number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; if a correction is deep
enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out of the question.
The markets have not
retested the lows on recent corrections and that left me under-invested on the
bounces. I will need to put less reliance on retests in the future.
