“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
HERE ARE TWO NPR NOTES
1) From NPR: “Correction: An earlier tweet incorrectly stated there is limited scientific evidence of physical advantage. Existing research shows that higher levels of testosterone do impact athletic performance. But there’s limited research involving elite trans athletes in competition.” - NPR
There is truth. And there is half-truth. The above statement to correct the prior misinformation is half-truth. If testosterone wasn’t an issue in elite athletes, why was Floyd Landis stripped of a Tour de France win due to excessive testosterone readings? That testosterone enhances performance is pretty well established in athletics.
2) “NPR laid off 10 percent of its staff this week and announced that it would stop production of four podcasts...
Unfortunately, NPR has had to take painful but necessary steps to address a $30 million shortfall in revenues...”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/25/us/npr-layoffs-podcasts.html
Could these two NPR pieces be cause and effect? When stories are twisted due to politics...
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“Driven by an uptick in expectations, consumer confidence improved somewhat in March, but remains below the average level seen in 2022 (104.5). The gain reflects an improved outlook for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over... While consumers feel a bit more confident about what’s ahead, they are slightly less optimistic about the current landscape...” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
“INSIDE THE STOCK MARKET” QUASHED THE SOFT LANDING
(Felder Report)
“Over the past month or two, however, they [relative performance of things like transportation stocks, materials, retail and small caps] have taken another sharp dive, implying the “soft landing” scenario may not be as likely to materialize as stock market bulls may hope. In fact, their recent weakness strongly suggests you “better be careful and keep your eyes open” because we may be headed for a hard landing after all. And that’s a scenario that analysts and stock prices have not yet begun to discount.” – Stan Druckenmiller. Commentary at...
https://thefelderreport.com/2023/03/22/how-the-inside-of-the-stock-market-quashed-the-soft-landing-narrative/
My cmt: I have my eyes open. In the last 2 days, we have begun to see some green shoots developing that may signal higher prices ahead for the markets. I don’t know about a soft landing; I won’t guess. Whatever landing we have may be pushed further out giving markets a chance to go higher in the interim.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 3971.
-VIX bucked trend and slipped about 3% to 19.97.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.567%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 17.2% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 309-days.
The S&P 500 is 1% ABOVE its 200-dMA 1.1% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
QLD – 2xNasdaq 100
SSO – 2x S&P 500
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see. They have more work than they can handle and are hiring. They should do well going forward. Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me. I have no cash left.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.6%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
If it’s not tech, it’s probably not working.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I misread one of my output sheets yesterday. The up-volume was only 77% not 82% as I reported. Still, the 10-dMA of up-volume popped up above 50% yesterday for the first time since 23 February. It remained 52% today so that is another bullish sign. Internals continue to improve so I think the weak period for the markets may be ending.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) declined from +8 to +6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved
from -24 to -14. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator was HOLD:
VOLUME, SENTIMENT, VIX & PRICE are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish Friday rundown of indicators.)
Bottom line: I am a nervous bull. The S&P 500
remained above its 200-dMA, but it has not been able to break above its 50-dMA
for almost 3-weeks.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
1) From NPR: “Correction: An earlier tweet incorrectly stated there is limited scientific evidence of physical advantage. Existing research shows that higher levels of testosterone do impact athletic performance. But there’s limited research involving elite trans athletes in competition.” - NPR
There is truth. And there is half-truth. The above statement to correct the prior misinformation is half-truth. If testosterone wasn’t an issue in elite athletes, why was Floyd Landis stripped of a Tour de France win due to excessive testosterone readings? That testosterone enhances performance is pretty well established in athletics.
2) “NPR laid off 10 percent of its staff this week and announced that it would stop production of four podcasts...
Unfortunately, NPR has had to take painful but necessary steps to address a $30 million shortfall in revenues...”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/25/us/npr-layoffs-podcasts.html
Could these two NPR pieces be cause and effect? When stories are twisted due to politics...
“Driven by an uptick in expectations, consumer confidence improved somewhat in March, but remains below the average level seen in 2022 (104.5). The gain reflects an improved outlook for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over... While consumers feel a bit more confident about what’s ahead, they are slightly less optimistic about the current landscape...” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
“Over the past month or two, however, they [relative performance of things like transportation stocks, materials, retail and small caps] have taken another sharp dive, implying the “soft landing” scenario may not be as likely to materialize as stock market bulls may hope. In fact, their recent weakness strongly suggests you “better be careful and keep your eyes open” because we may be headed for a hard landing after all. And that’s a scenario that analysts and stock prices have not yet begun to discount.” – Stan Druckenmiller. Commentary at...
https://thefelderreport.com/2023/03/22/how-the-inside-of-the-stock-market-quashed-the-soft-landing-narrative/
My cmt: I have my eyes open. In the last 2 days, we have begun to see some green shoots developing that may signal higher prices ahead for the markets. I don’t know about a soft landing; I won’t guess. Whatever landing we have may be pushed further out giving markets a chance to go higher in the interim.
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 3971.
-VIX bucked trend and slipped about 3% to 19.97.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.567%.
-Drop from Top: 17.2% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 309-days.
The S&P 500 is 1% ABOVE its 200-dMA 1.1% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
QLD – 2xNasdaq 100
SSO – 2x S&P 500
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see. They have more work than they can handle and are hiring. They should do well going forward. Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me. I have no cash left.
I misread one of my output sheets yesterday. The up-volume was only 77% not 82% as I reported. Still, the 10-dMA of up-volume popped up above 50% yesterday for the first time since 23 February. It remained 52% today so that is another bullish sign. Internals continue to improve so I think the weak period for the markets may be ending.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
