“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“A team from Monash University in Melbourne, Australia,
found that a hydrogen-consuming enzyme from a common soil bacterium was able to
generate an electrical current using the atmosphere as an energy source.”
From...
Scientists discover how to make electricity ‘out of thin air’ (msn.com)
FED BEIGE BOOK (Federal Reserve)
“Overall economic activity increased slightly in early 2023. Six Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the last report, while six indicated economic activity expanded at a modest pace. On balance, supply chain disruptions continued to ease. Consumer spending generally held steady, though a few Districts reported moderate to strong growth in retail sales during what is typically a slow period. Auto sales were little changed, on balance, though inventory levels continued to improve. Several Districts indicated that high inflation and higher interest rates continued to reduce consumers' discretionary income and purchasing power, and some concern was expressed about rising credit card debt.” Report at...
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202303.htm
ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP)
“Private employers added 242,000 jobs in February...Job gains are solid and wage growth remains elevated. A particular area of weakness is with small establishments, which shed jobs every month since August 2022. There is a tradeoff in the labor market right now. We're seeing robust hiring, which is good for the economy and workers, but pay growth remains quite elevated. The modest slowdown in pay increases, on its own, is unlikely to drive down inflation rapidly in the near-term.” - Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP. Press release at...
https://adpemploymentreport.com/
JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (CNBC)
“The Labor Department’s JOLTS report showed there are 10.824 million openings, down some 410,000 from December. That equates to 1.9 job openings per every available worker. Quits, a signal of worker confidence in mobility, fell to 3.88 million, the lowest level since May 2021.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/job-openings-declined-in-january-but-still-far-outnumber-available-workers.html
EIA CRUDE INVENTORY (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 478.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 7% above the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 3992.
-VIX slipped about 2% to 19.11.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 3.992%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 16.8% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 295-days.
The S&P 500 is 1.3% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 0.1% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
QLD – 2xNasdaq 100
SSO – 2x S&P 500
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.6%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
There are some worrisome signs creeping up. I always think that it is time to worry when the 40-dMA of the % of new-highs turns down. It was falling for about a week after Christmas. Other than that, this stat has been rising since 25 October. For review, the bottom of the correction was 10 October. The chart is also at a critical point. The S&P 500 is on its lower trend line, or very close, depending on what scales are used to draw the chart. We need to see the S&P 500 climb back above its 50-dMA (3998) to feel more comfortable.
I remain cautiously bullish and heavily invested in
stocks. I’ll trim my leveraged positions (QLD & SSO) if the S&P 500
declines more than a little from today’s close of 3992.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) declined from +1 to -1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved
from +10 to +11. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
HOLD: PRICE, VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish Friday rundown of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a BULL; but I’ll be watching
indicators carefully.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested position
is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about
50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
Scientists discover how to make electricity ‘out of thin air’ (msn.com)
“Overall economic activity increased slightly in early 2023. Six Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the last report, while six indicated economic activity expanded at a modest pace. On balance, supply chain disruptions continued to ease. Consumer spending generally held steady, though a few Districts reported moderate to strong growth in retail sales during what is typically a slow period. Auto sales were little changed, on balance, though inventory levels continued to improve. Several Districts indicated that high inflation and higher interest rates continued to reduce consumers' discretionary income and purchasing power, and some concern was expressed about rising credit card debt.” Report at...
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202303.htm
“Private employers added 242,000 jobs in February...Job gains are solid and wage growth remains elevated. A particular area of weakness is with small establishments, which shed jobs every month since August 2022. There is a tradeoff in the labor market right now. We're seeing robust hiring, which is good for the economy and workers, but pay growth remains quite elevated. The modest slowdown in pay increases, on its own, is unlikely to drive down inflation rapidly in the near-term.” - Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP. Press release at...
https://adpemploymentreport.com/
“The Labor Department’s JOLTS report showed there are 10.824 million openings, down some 410,000 from December. That equates to 1.9 job openings per every available worker. Quits, a signal of worker confidence in mobility, fell to 3.88 million, the lowest level since May 2021.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/job-openings-declined-in-january-but-still-far-outnumber-available-workers.html
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 478.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 7% above the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 3992.
-VIX slipped about 2% to 19.11.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 3.992%.
-Drop from Top: 16.8% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 295-days.
The S&P 500 is 1.3% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 0.1% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
QLD – 2xNasdaq 100
SSO – 2x S&P 500
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
There are some worrisome signs creeping up. I always think that it is time to worry when the 40-dMA of the % of new-highs turns down. It was falling for about a week after Christmas. Other than that, this stat has been rising since 25 October. For review, the bottom of the correction was 10 October. The chart is also at a critical point. The S&P 500 is on its lower trend line, or very close, depending on what scales are used to draw the chart. We need to see the S&P 500 climb back above its 50-dMA (3998) to feel more comfortable.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
