“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“I don’t know any other way to say it...The former
president is lying about the record of Governor DeSantis. He’s lying about how
far he went to deal with shutdowns that were going across the country, but not
going on in Florida. He’s lying about some of his accomplishments in the past.”
- Neil
Cavuto, Fox News host of “our World.”
My cmt: Really? Fox news has decided to tell the truth?
DURABLE ORDERS (SME)
“New orders for durable goods fell in February on transportation equipment, the Commerce Department reported today. Orders slid 1 percent to $268.4 billion last month, according to a monthly report. It was the third decline in the past four months and followed a revised fall of 5 percent in January. Excluding transportation, orders were almost unchanged.” Story at...
https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/march/durable-goods-orders-decline-on-transportation/
IHS MARKIT COMPOSITE PMI (S&P Global)
“US companies signalled a renewed expansion in business activity in March, according to the latest ‘flash’ PMI™ data from S&P Global. Output grew at a solid pace that was the fastest since May 2022 as demand conditions improved and new order growth returned. Manufacturers and service providers alike registered upturns in output, with service sector firms driving the increase.” Press release at...
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/53e9f887b83e47d7bc6681c608d5aa3f
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 3971.
-VIX slipped about 2% to 22.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.376%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 17.2% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 307-days.
The S&P 500 is 1% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 1.1% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
QLD – 2xNasdaq 100
SSO – 2x S&P 500
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see. They have more work than they can handle and are hiring. They should do well going forward. Boeing reports earning 4/26/2023.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
*KRE – Regional Banking ETF. Added Monday. This is a small position for me. I have no cash left.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.6%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
If it’s not tech, it’s probably not working.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Major indices were all higher today, but there were apparently concerns. Utilities and Consumer Staples outperformed by a lot, while Consumer Discretionary and Industrials underperformed. Those divergences don’t usually happen when the S&P 500 is up.
There was high, unchanged-volume today, so maybe the sign
will be valid this time and markets will move higher next week. That’s the theory
anyway. It’s not really clear now, though.
The S&P 500 has been nearly flat for 3-weeks. Unchanged volume is
supposed to indicate a change in direction.
Now, the current direction is not clear so we don’t know which direction
to expect the change.
Here’s this week’s Friday review of Indicators:
The Friday rundown of indicators had fewer bear signs this week (now 13-bear and 8-bull), but remained mostly bearish. (These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.)
BULL SIGNS
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-My Money Trend indicator is rising.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is rising.
-The Smart Money (late-day action) is bullish.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is bullish.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term momentum is bullish.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 21 March.
NEUTRAL
-There have been 6 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days. This one can be hard to interpret, but since it occurred at a low point, it could be bullish. However, the back-and-forth movement is bearish. Lets just call this one neutral.
-Sentiment.
-Bollinger Bands.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-RSI
-There was a 90% down-volume day 9 March. Another one will push this into the Bear category.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been smaller than the size of down-moves over the last month, but not enough to send a signal.
-There have been 6 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 11 up-days over the last 20 sessions - neutral.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 12 January. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign. - Expired
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50%, for 2 days in a row – still neutral.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-The short-term, 10-dayEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-The S&P 500 is 0.8% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April 2022 – expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired
-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 3.5 standard deviations. More simply, the spread between new-highs and new-lows improved by 716 on 14 October. That’s a solid bottom sign at a retest. – Expired.
-VIX indicator.
-55% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days – not quite bullish.
-S&P 500 is outperforming Utilities (XLU-ETF), but the spread is small so let’s call it neutral.
BEAR SIGNS
-There have been 6 Distribution Days in the last 5-weeks.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bearish crossover 9 March.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is falling.
-9 March there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
-Slope of the 200-dMA is falling.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is falling.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is SELL; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both below the 20-dEMA.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is underperforming the S&P 500.
On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top before the
Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there
are 13 bear-signs and 8-Bull. Last week, there were 19 bear-sign and 8
bull-signs.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) improved from -2 to -1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish);
the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -41
to -39. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the
10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on
data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator was
HOLD: VOLUME IS BULLISH; SENTIMENT; VIX & PRICE are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days
after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term
buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals
on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a
buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a
Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger
market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal
was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this recent bear market,
based on the bearish Friday rundown of indicators.)
Bottom line: I am a nervous bull. The S&P 500 remained
above its 200-dMA, but it has not been able to break above its 50-dMA for almost
3-weeks. I’d be concerned if the Index were to break below its 200-dMA. If
there is any price weakness next week, I’ll be selling leveraged positions.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
My cmt: Really? Fox news has decided to tell the truth?
“New orders for durable goods fell in February on transportation equipment, the Commerce Department reported today. Orders slid 1 percent to $268.4 billion last month, according to a monthly report. It was the third decline in the past four months and followed a revised fall of 5 percent in January. Excluding transportation, orders were almost unchanged.” Story at...
https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/march/durable-goods-orders-decline-on-transportation/
“US companies signalled a renewed expansion in business activity in March, according to the latest ‘flash’ PMI™ data from S&P Global. Output grew at a solid pace that was the fastest since May 2022 as demand conditions improved and new order growth returned. Manufacturers and service providers alike registered upturns in output, with service sector firms driving the increase.” Press release at...
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/53e9f887b83e47d7bc6681c608d5aa3f
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 3971.
-VIX slipped about 2% to 22.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.376%.
-Drop from Top: 17.2% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 307-days.
The S&P 500 is 1% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 1.1% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
QLD – 2xNasdaq 100
SSO – 2x S&P 500
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see. They have more work than they can handle and are hiring. They should do well going forward. Boeing reports earning 4/26/2023.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
*KRE – Regional Banking ETF. Added Monday. This is a small position for me. I have no cash left.
Major indices were all higher today, but there were apparently concerns. Utilities and Consumer Staples outperformed by a lot, while Consumer Discretionary and Industrials underperformed. Those divergences don’t usually happen when the S&P 500 is up.
The Friday rundown of indicators had fewer bear signs this week (now 13-bear and 8-bull), but remained mostly bearish. (These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.)
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-My Money Trend indicator is rising.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is rising.
-The Smart Money (late-day action) is bullish.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is bullish.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term momentum is bullish.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 21 March.
-There have been 6 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days. This one can be hard to interpret, but since it occurred at a low point, it could be bullish. However, the back-and-forth movement is bearish. Lets just call this one neutral.
-Sentiment.
-Bollinger Bands.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-RSI
-There was a 90% down-volume day 9 March. Another one will push this into the Bear category.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been smaller than the size of down-moves over the last month, but not enough to send a signal.
-There have been 6 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 11 up-days over the last 20 sessions - neutral.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 12 January. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign. - Expired
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50%, for 2 days in a row – still neutral.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-The short-term, 10-dayEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-The S&P 500 is 0.8% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April 2022 – expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired
-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 3.5 standard deviations. More simply, the spread between new-highs and new-lows improved by 716 on 14 October. That’s a solid bottom sign at a retest. – Expired.
-VIX indicator.
-55% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days – not quite bullish.
-S&P 500 is outperforming Utilities (XLU-ETF), but the spread is small so let’s call it neutral.
-There have been 6 Distribution Days in the last 5-weeks.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bearish crossover 9 March.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is falling.
-9 March there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
-Slope of the 200-dMA is falling.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is falling.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is SELL; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both below the 20-dEMA.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is underperforming the S&P 500.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
