Consumer Confidence ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“...why is our media coverage of Russia’s massive bombing of Ukraine’s civilian housing and infrastructure so lightly reported, especially compared with its immediate, intense coverage of Israel’s attempts to root out and finally destroy the terrorist organizations that so brutally attacked it on Oct. 7?” - Ellery Block, WSJ letters.
 
LIBERTARIANS WARN ABOUT TRUMP (CNN)
“You don’t need to be a member of the Libertarian Party to understand that if Trump had been successful in his efforts to remain in power despite losing the 2020 election, our democratic republic as we know it would have ended. Elections would no longer matter if Trump or any candidate — without credible evidence and after losing all judicial appeals — could declare that he or she could remain in office simply by alleging there was widespread fraud. That is why he has been charged with numerous felonies in both the federal courts and in Fulton County, Georgia... I hope people across the country read about what took place Saturday night at the Libertarian convention. Maybe, just maybe, the loud jeers and boos by those patriotic Americans directed against Trump will wake up their fellow citizens to the threat he poses if he’s elected again to lead our country.” - Dean Obeidallah, a former attorney, is the host of SiriusXM radio’s daily program “The Dean Obeidallah Show.” Follow him on Threads. Opinion at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/27/opinions/trump-booed-libertarian-convention-2024-election-obeidallah/index.html
 
BRAGG HASN’T PROVED THE TRUMP NY FRAUD CASE (WSJ)
“To get a guilty verdict on the 34 bookkeeping felonies, Mr. Bragg must prove both that Mr. Trump falsified business records, and also that he did it with intent to commit or conceal a second crime... Mr. Bragg’s main argument for the second crime is that because the Stormy payoff was primarily meant to influence the 2016 election, it was in effect an illegal donation to Mr. Trump’s campaign... Judge Merchan said Tuesday he was reserving decision on a request by the defense to tell jurors Mr. Trump must have acted “willfully” to be found guilty. Either way, the reality is that hush money isn’t illegal, disguising the bookkeeping is a misdemeanor that’s past its statute of limitations, and Mr. Bragg jury-rigged the felonies using an alleged second crime that doesn’t look like a crime.” WSJ Editorial staff.  Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-trial-jury-stormy-daniels-alvin-bragg-juan-merchan-campaign-finance-fa2d1596
My cmt: Regular readers know I do not support trump (or Biden either), but this Stormy Daniels case has always looked like a witch hunt.
 
BIDEN LIES AGAIN (NY Post)
“President Biden repeated a claim that he turned down an appointment to the Naval Academy, where he said he intended to play football, during his commencement speech at West Point on Saturday... “And I’d found out two days earlier they had a quarterback named Roger Staubach and a halfback named Joe Bellino — I said, ‘I’m not going there.’ I went to Delaware. Not a joke,’ the president said... “He has repeated this lie many times before and there is still no record any of it ever happened,” the RNC posted. Biden’s 2008 autobiography “Promises to Keep” notably does not mention the Naval Academy.” Story at...
Biden repeats 2022 Naval Academy appointment story at West Point commencement (msn.com)
My cmt: What did we do to deserve Biden and Trump as the party candidates for president?
 
"Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is the probable reason why so few engage in it.” -  Henry Ford
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions was slightly less positive than last month. However, the strong labor market continued to bolster consumers’ overall assessment of the present situation. Views of current labor market conditions improved in May... Compared to last month, confidence improved among consumers of all age groups.” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 1 pt to 5306.
-VIX rose about 8% to 12.92 so the Options players are worried.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose above 4.5%, but the actual numbers were not available from my usual source.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
 
CRM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) was slightly more bearish, but still close to a Neutral position with 12 Bear-signs and 10-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of spread (purple line in the chart below) was down again today but its rate of fall improved.
 

TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Bull-Bear spread of indicators is close to neutral, but bear signs are concerning. Some of those Bear signs are:
-Money Trend   
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-Breadth MACD
-Long-term and short-term New-high new-low data.
-Cyclical Industrials vs. the S&P 500.
-The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE is again below 50%.
-The Hindenburg Omen improved and is not giving a signal today, however, the Omen remains in place until the McClellan Oscillator turns positive.  The Oscillator is still negative, so the Hindenburg warning remains in place.
 
A couple of important Bull signs are:
-Buying Pressure has been exceeding selling pressure
-The S&P 500 is 2.5% above its 50-dMA. That’s usually the lower trend line so the Index remains in its channel; I remain cautiously bullish.
 
I don’t see enough bear signs to make any changes to the portfolio.  I am worried about my Salesforce holding.  It has not been performing well recently – do other investors know something I don’t? I may be punished again for not following my own system.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals switched back to Bearish. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested position. This is my max % for stock allocation.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.