Durable Goods ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Houstonians with electric stoves can’t cook, those with
electric water heaters lack hot water – and those with electric cars can’t
charge them. The range of an EV without electricity is zero. But President Joe
Biden’s Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Transportation are
requiring that 70% of new cars and 25% of new trucks sold in 2032 be electric.
Imagine the state Houston would be in if the number of EVs on the road today
met those standards.” Commentary at...
Commentary:
Houston storm shows downside of forced electrification (msn.com)
“The US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is
seeking to impose a hefty $6 million fine on a political consultant responsible
for creating and distributing a fake election campaign call that used a
convincingly real-sounding voice of President Joe Biden. The automated call,
which targeted voters in New Hampshire, urged them to abstain from
participating in the Democratic Party's primary election.”
Biden
Call Faked: Creator Faces Million-Dollar Fine (msn.com)
My cmt: It is a felony to tamper with one vote in an
election. This sort of election
interference cannot be tolerated from either party.
DURABLES (Breakingthenews.net)
“The number of durable goods orders in the United States
went up by 0.7% or $1.9 billion in April, landing at $284.1 billion, a report
published by the United States Census Bureau on Friday showed.” Story at...
https://breakingthenews.net/Article/US-durable-goods-orders-up-0.7-in-April/62108800
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 5305.
-VIX fell about 7% to 11.92.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.467%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
CRM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index,
also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a
comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks
that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which
comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a
complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap
companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear
Indicators) moved in a bullish direction, but should be considered neutral at 11
Bear-signs and 10-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will
signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of spread (purple line in the chart below)
was down again today and that is still a bearish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The 10-dMA of Breadth bounced back above 50% signaling
that more than half of the issues on the NYSE have been up over the last 10-days. Below 50% is the first sign of possible real
trouble, so this is trouble avoided. Let’s hope it stays that way.
The Hindenburg Omen improved and is not giving a signal
today, however, the Omen remains in place until the McClellan Oscillator turns
positive. The Oscillator is still
negative, so the Hindenburg warning remains in place. As we noted yesterday,
neither the long-term or short-term Fosback Hi/Low Logic indicators are
bearish. They are both closer to giving
bullish indications. Those indicators also look at the number of new-highs and
new-lows in a somewhat similar style of analysis as the Hindenburg Omen
indicator. It is well known that the Hindenburg is not always right. The last time we saw an Omen (actually 3 in a
row) was in February and the market ignored it.
I think the weakness may be over, the decline stopped
where we would expect it, but rather than going with what I think, I’ll wait
and see what the indicators say next week.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested
position. This is my max % for stock allocation.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 2022 and 2023.
