Philly FED ... Housing ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 

                  Northern Lights during my visit in Wisconsin taken with an I-phone.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
PHILLY FED REPORT (Philadelphia FED)
“Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand overall, according to the firms responding to the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicator for general activity edged lower but remained positive, while the index for shipments ticked up and the index for new orders turned positive. The employment index remained negative, continuing to suggest a decline in overall employment levels. Both price indexes fell and remained below their long-run averages. Future activity indicators rose, suggesting more widespread expectations for overall growth over the next six months.” Report at...
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2024-03
 
HOUSING STARTS / PERMITS (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. single-family homebuilding and permits fell in April amid a resurgence in mortgage rates, but new construction remains supported by an acute shortage of houses for sale. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, slipped 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.031 million units last month...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-single-family-housing-starts-132204577.html
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (PYMNTS)
“The number of initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped by 10,000 during the week ended Saturday (May 11), reversing about half of the increase that was seen a week earlier. The total of 222,000 initial claims filed during the week was down from the previous week’s revised figure of 232,000...” Story at...
https://www.pymnts.com/personnel/2024/ai-startup-perplexity-adds-3-advisors-to-guide-companys-growth/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 5297.
-VIX declined about 0.2% to 12.42.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.377%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
 
CRM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) remained bullish and was little changed at 7 Bear-signs and 17-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of spread (purple line in the chart below) continues to improve, a bullish sign.

TODAY’S COMMENT:
A new bear sign is the Overbought / Oversold Ratio that switched to bearish. This tends to be a very short-term indicator that may suggests a down day for tomorrow or perhaps for a few sessions.
 
All-in-all, things look OK for now and I am not expecting significant declines any time soon.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are bullish; VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
I forgot to update this chart yesterday, but below is Friday’s chart. DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested position. This is my max % for stock allocation.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 22 and 23.