Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“America is a family. And the definition of “family” is “people who hate each other without resorting to violence.” Never forget the single shining truth about democracy: It means sharing a country with people you can’t stand. If we want to simply exist, we’re going to have to find a way to work together. Like the Rolling Stones, because we also need a comeback tour to pay our bills.” – Bill Maher in his WSJ essay at...
https://www.wsj.com/politics/red-and-blue-america-cant-just-go-their-separate-ways-66a17cdb
 
“When I was vice president, things were kind of bad during the pandemic and what happened was, Barack said to me, ‘Go to Detroit! Help fix it...’ Well, the poor mayor, he’s spent more time with me than he ever thought he’s gonna have to!” – Joe Biden claiming that he was Vice President during the Covid pandemic – just another case of Biden’s “confusion.”  The pandemic hit more than 3 years after he left office. (as reported by the NY Post.)
My cmt: The clowns running for President in the major parties may be the two worst candidates in the history of the United States.
 
BIDEN VOLDEMORTEN EXECUTIVE PRIVILEDGE (The Hill)
“While all eyes were focused on a Manhattan courthouse for Donald Trump’s trial, a curious thing happened in Washington. President Joe Biden invoked executive privilege in defiance of Congress. It is not the invocation that is particularly unusual. What is curious is that Biden is withholding the audiotape of his own interrogation by Special Counsel Robert Hur, even though the transcript has been released as unprivileged. It appears that Joe Biden is “he who must not be heard...” 
... Biden’s Voldemortian theory of privilege is unlikely to succeed legally, but that is not the point. Garland knows that it is likely to succeed politically. With generally favorable judges in Washington, the Biden administration hopes to run out the clock on the election. If Biden wins the election or the Democrats win the House, there may be no ongoing investigation or justification to support the demand in court. Of course, unlike Voldemort, who simply did not want to be named, Biden wants to remain “he who must not be heard” outside of short, carefully controlled settings. What Hur heard could therefore remain a privilege of office.” - Jonathan Turley, J.B. and Maurice C. Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at the George Washington University Law School. Opinion at...
Opinion: Biden’s Voldemortian theory of privilege: The president whose voice must not be heard (msn.com)
 
ARAB REJECTIONISM THE BARRIER TO PEACE (Jerusalem Post)
“...In 1947 the United Nations voted to split British Mandate Palestine into an Arab and a Jewish state. Instead of accepting the offer and establishing their own independent Palestinian state, the Arabs declared war on the Jews living in the land of Israel. The Arabs lost that war and an independent Palestinian state was never established. 
 
In Israel’s 1948 Independence War, the IDF didn’t capture all the land “From the River to Sea.” The Gaza Strip and Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) were illegally occupied by the Egyptians and Jordanians, respectively... It was only after the Six Day War in 1967, when Israel captured those lands from the Egyptians and Jordanians, that Palestinians and the international community began to advocate for an independent Palestinian state.
 
The irony is that just like in 1948 when the international community offered the Palestinians a state and they rejected it, in 1967, Israel repeated the offer, willingly conceding Judea, Samaria, and the Gaza Strip to the Palestinians, Egyptians, or Jordanians, in exchange for peace, only to have the Palestinians reject their offer. 
 
Over the next 57 years, the Palestinians continuously rejected every peace deal offered to them. More insidiously, the Palestinians engaged in over five decades of terrorism that targeted schools, buses, and even airplanes...
 
...The impediment to peace between Israelis and Palestinians isn’t Israeli settlements, it’s Palestinian intransigence and terrorism.” - Aliza Pilichowski, mayor of Mitzpe Yeriho, Israel and certified interfaith hospice chaplain in Jerusalem. Story at... 
Arab rejectionism, not settlements, is the real barrier to peace (msn.com)
 
WHY UTILITIES ARE LIGHTING UP THE MARKET (WSJ)
“In the past few months, though, utilities have left the rest of the market in the dust. These dullest of all stocks have suddenly become a bet on the single flashiest area of the market: artificial intelligence. AI requires a lot of computing power, and computers use a lot of electricity.” – Jason Zweig, investor columnist for the WSJ. Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/utility-stocks-lighting-up-the-stock-market-6b8e4d18
My cmt: My check on the reason utilities are doing well found the cause was that interest rates are expected to fall. Utilities as a growth play? – Interesting, could be.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 5308.
-VIX rose about 1% to 12.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.427%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
 
CRM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) remained bullish at 9 Bear-signs and 15-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of spread (purple line in the chart below) was flat today. While it is easy to be bullish when the 10-dMA of Indicator spread is moving higher, it becomes more problematic when it stalls or retreats. When the 10-dMA of spread is falling, we look at charts, top-bottom indicators, and other signs to get a handle on market direction. Now, we see only one top-indicator flashing a warning: RSI is overbought. Without more topping signs, I won’t worry.

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Breadth indicators are all bullish. Indicators still look OK to me.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are bullish; VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested position. This is my max % for stock allocation.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.