Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“The tax on capital gains directly affects investment
decisions, the mobility and flow of risk capital from static to more dynamic
situations, the ease or difficulty experienced by new ventures in obtaining
capital and thereby the strength and potential for growth of the economy.” –
John F. Kennedy.
“One minute you're up half a million in soybeans and the
next, boom, your kids don't go to college and they've repossessed your Bentley.
Are you with me?" – Louis Winthorpe III.
“An Arizona State University senior who was arrested and
suspended after trespassing during an anti-Israel protest broke down in tears
over missing graduation as a consequence of her actions. ‘I’m being restricted
from a lot of things right now that I didn’t expect to be for standing up for
something I believe in,’ Breanna Brocker told ABC15 as she choked up.” From...
Anti-Israel
student protester cries over missing graduation after she was arrested,
suspended (msn.com)
"Instead of hanging out in your nice brand new paid
from unknown sources green and white tents, why not send them to those
displaced in Gaza who really need them? After all, you have dorms and
apartments that mommy and daddy are paying for right now. You have catered food
and an all you can eat snack bar, why not send food to those you claim are
starving? Since you are skipping classes (if you are actually a student), why
not go volunteer to help in Gaza? Many American Jews have gone to help in
Israel on farms and kibbitzes to provide missing labor as so many Israelis have
been called up to military service. If you really want to help, why don't you
go where you really could make a difference for the people you profess to be
supporting?" – Melinda Roth, Professor, GWU.
BIDEN SUPPORTERS FUNDING PRO-PALESTINE PROTESTORS
(Politico)
“President Joe Biden has been dogged for months by
pro-Palestinian protesters calling him “Genocide Joe” — but some of the groups
behind the demonstrations receive financial backing from philanthropists
pushing hard for his reelection.
The donors include some of the biggest names in
Democratic circles: Soros, Rockefeller and Pritzker, according to a POLITICO
analysis.” Story at...
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/05/pro-palestinian-protests-columbia-university-funding-donors-00156135
MARKET TRADING UPDATE (Real Investment Advice)
“...the market continues to trade above the 100-DMA,
establishing a pattern of higher lows. If the market can weather today’s
employment report, it could set it up for a rally next week. Notably, we are
beginning to build a pattern of price compression. A break out to the upside
will likely lead to a retest of this year’s highs. A downside break will lead
to a test of the 200-DMA. Unfortunately, the odds for either outcome are
currently 50/50.” Commentary at...
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/daily-market-commentary/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 5181.
-VIX declined about 0.2% to 13.47.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.489%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index,
also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a
comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks
that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which
comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a
complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap
companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators)
moved into Bull territory Friday and today it remained 8 Bear-signs and 13-Bull
and the 10-dMA. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral
indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal
only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of spread (purple line in the chart below) continues
to improve, a bullish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 broke above its 50-dMA Friday and
remained above it today. That’s consecutive days above the 50-dMA, another
bullish, trend-change sign, although we started buying the trend change on 24
April, nearly two weeks ago.
MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover Friday
and remains bullish today
This advance has been very fast and Bollinger Bands are
close to overbought and the Overbought/Oversold Index turned overbought today.
The overbought/oversold index is based on the smoothed difference between advancing
stocks and declining stocks. It tends to be early overall, but it may be
helpful in short-term trading, i.e., it may be predicting a down-day tomorrow.
I don’t pay too much attention to this indicator on a longer time frame.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: VOLUME is bullish; VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish. The S&P 500 is headed back to all-time,
new highs.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
I forgot to update this chart
yesterday, but below is Friday’s chart. DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested
position. This is my max % for stock allocation.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 22 and 23.
