... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"There is a special place in HELL for the people who are willing to argue to the Supreme Court that the man they MISTAKENLY sent to an El Salvador prison should stay there.” – Representative Eric Swalwell, Democrat, California.
My cmt: Apparently the Supreme Court agrees. They voted 9-0 against Trump’s Homeland Security.
 
"I [Donald Trump] was watching it. But if you look at it now, it’s beautiful.” That beautiful market, which suffered distress as yields were whipsawed earlier in the week, may still be in trouble, along with the president’s continuing tariff plans. The bond market’s reaction to the tariffs has alarmed investors and sparked fears of an incipient financial crisis as the tariffs went into effect. The immediate crisis may have eased, but with long-term Treasury yields still elevated, the problems that forced the administration to alter its plans on Wednesday could easily recur if the White House keeps moving forward with tariffs.” Story at
The U.S. Came Close to Financial Disaster This Week—and Could Come Close Again
My cmt: This is the real reason that Trump postponed the Tariffs for 90-days. It may explain why the stock markets have been trying to recover – investors suggest that Trump won’t or can’t go thru with the full Tariff plan. What bothers me is that Tariffs on China alone may do serious damage to the economy so uncertainty remains. Inquiring minds want to know...how this will end. 
 
TRUMP WANTS OT BE IMPEACHED AGAIN (?) (WSJ)
“This week the system worked. Donald Trump blinked. The unwinding is still just beginning. It will be painful and tumultuous. A grief-filled fight lies ahead over whether his trade actions have even been legal and constitutional. Many slips between cup and lip are to be expected. China and the U.S. are rushing toward an unplanned total stoppage of trade. The bond market is signaling a potentially dangerous combustion with America’s unaddressed fiscal-sustainability challenge... A future Trump impeachment seemed all but guaranteed by last Wednesday morning. It seems only slightly less likely now.” Holman Jenkins, WSJ. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-wants-to-be-impeached-again-6f4ea931?mod=opinion_lead_pos8
 
GUNDLACH’S WARNING (The Street)
"Halfway through fiscal year 2025, the U.S. Budget deficit increased by $1.3 trillion. So we are up to a $2.6 trillion annual rate. That rounds up to an incredible 9% of GDP," wrote Gundlach in a post on "X."  [on 10 April 2025]  The soaring budget deficit means we rely heavily on foreign Treasury bond buyers to finance (and refinance) our spending. Foreign buyers own 30% of Treasuries, according to Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Group. Given our hefty deficit, the appetite to own Treasuries could weaken amid the ongoing trade war. We may already be feeling some shockwaves. "The 30-year US Treasury yield is going vertical," wrote Gundlach...
... In a CNBC interview on April 7, "The odds favor a recession at this point. It's kind of hard to see how we avoid it... The market was ridiculously overvalued going into 2025."
Gundlach thinks the S&P 500 could see 4,500. It's currently 5,314.” Story at...
Billionaire Jeffrey Gundlach sends blunt warning on stocks, bonds
 
HERES THE 20-YEAR TREASURY BOND CHART (Ciovacco Capital)

“...Yes, the [bond] market does appear to be concerned about the ballooning US budget deficit.”  - Chris Ciovacco, Ciovacco Capital Management. Video presentation at...
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_ywfvIR2JrnMuZt33y7QYQ
My cmt: Prices fall as yields rise. For years many economists have stated that the Budget Deficit makes no difference. We now see that budget deficits are affecting capital markets. Unless budget deficits are reigned in, we could be looking at very serious problems (higher interest rates; lower stock prices) in the future.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 5406.
-VIX declined about 18% to 30.89.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.384% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
NONE
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

 
TODAY’S COMMENT
“...Preservation of Capital is still #1... Judging from price action, we are witnessing a turn away from US assets.” – Goldman Sachs, Tony Pasquariello note.
 
That may be, but indicators continue to improve. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved, but remained bearish at -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators) - the 10-dMA of the spread reversed upward – a bullish sign.
 
Still, this is the toughest market I’ve ever seen when it comes to timing buy or sell moves. The indicators suggest buying, but the biggest factor in the market is Donald Trump. His moves are unpredictable and the impacts are extreme.
 
Sentiment is Bullish because bearish bets are very high, at least in the Rydex/Guggenheim long-short funds that I track.
 
Checking the chart, the Index has retraced about half of its decline from the bounce high of 5777 (25 March) and the low of 4983. That may end this bounce. The weak afternoon action today supports that idea.
 
I still think it is likely that the prior lows will be retested, but we need to keep an open mind that it is also possible there will not be a retest of the low. I’m just watching the charts.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, leaning bearish, in a wait-and-see mode.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
All of the ETFs I track are below their 120-dMA the chart is blowing up. None have positive momentum, but IEFA is #1; ITA is #2; XLU is #3.

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.