Tuesday, April 15, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“A conservative, pro-business nonprofit group is now taking President Donald Trump's administration to court, alleging that he is stepping outside the bounds of his authority to set new tariff rates. The Daily Beast reported Monday that the libertarian-leaning Liberty Justice Center (LJC) is representing five small business owners in a lawsuit challenging Trump's use of emergency powers to bypass Congress and unilaterally impose tariffs on most of the world.” Story at... 
'Likely to do severe damage': Conservative group sues Trump for 'unprecedented power grab'
 
RADIO ADDRESS TO THE NATION ON FREE AND FAIR TRADE (Reagan Library)
“...[The] message of free trade is one I conveyed to Canada's leaders a few weeks ago, and it was warmly received there. Indeed, throughout the world there's a growing realization that the way to prosperity for all nations is rejecting protectionist legislation and promoting fair and free competition. Now, there are sound historical reasons for this. For those of us who lived through the Great Depression, the memory of the suffering it caused is deep and searing. And today many economic analysts and historians argue that high tariff legislation passed back in that period called the Smoot-Hawley tariff greatly deepened the depression and prevented economic recovery.
You see, at first, when someone says, ``Let's impose tariffs on foreign imports,'' it looks like they're doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes for a short while it works -- but only for a short time. What eventually occurs is: First, homegrown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets. And then, while all this is going on, something even worse occurs. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition. So, soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs.” – President Ronald Reagan, 25 April 1987. Full speech at...
https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/radio-address-nation-free-and-fair-trade-4
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 5397.
-VIX declined about 2% to 30.12.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.325% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
NONE
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
I don’t have anything smart to say.  Indicators are improving as investors warm to the markets. I should be following the indicators, but I don’t need to take risk. With Trump, we have no real clue what is coming next, so why gamble?
 
“...Preservation of Capital is still #1... Judging from price action, we are witnessing a turn away from US assets.” – Goldman Sachs, Tony Pasquariello note, 14 April.
 
Not that it means much, but yesterday there was a Death Cross” on the S&P 500 – the 50-day moving average has dropped below its 200-dMA. This may create more selling? I don’t know; markets are already in bad shape so the “Death Cross” may not be important.
 
Sorry, but I don’t feel very helpful at this point. The S&P 500 has not broken above its upper trend line and certainly not decisively above it. That’s my line in the sand as a buy-signal.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, leaning bearish, in a wait-and-see mode.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
All of the ETFs I track are below their 120-dMA so the chart is blowing up. None have positive momentum, but IEFA is #1; ITA is #2; XLU is #3.
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My current invested position is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.