"Happy Easter to all, including the Radical Left
Lunatics who are fighting and scheming so hard to bring Murderers, Drug Lords,
Dangerous Prisoners, the Mentally Insane, and well-known MS-13 Gang Members and
Wife Beaters, back into our Country...Happy Easter also to the WEAK and
INEFFECTIVE Judges and Law Enforcement Officials who are allowing this sinister
attack on our Nation to continue, an attack so violent that it will never be
forgotten!" – Donald Trump.
My cmt: Same to you Donald. Thanks for the uplifting Easter comments.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“...Preservation of Capital is still #1... Judging from
price action, we are witnessing a turn away from US assets.” – Goldman Sachs,
Tony Pasquariello note, 14 April.
WASHINGTON STATE TAX ON TESLA (WSJ-excerpt)
“Washington state progressives haven’t found a tax they don’t want to impose, and behold the bell-ringer: a tax specifically designed to siphon Elon Musk’s profit from their own environmental regulations. This is a tale of policy contortions only today’s climate left could create... The only thing progressives hate more than global warming these days is the prospect of enriching Elon Musk. So after years of trying to force the country to buy electric vehicles, they’re now planning to punish the company producing them. Two companion bills filed by Olympia Democrats would tax the EV credits that Mr. Musk is poised to cash in on at 10% of the credit price... Democrats are seeking every avenue to hurt Mr. Musk short of setting Teslas on fire (and some progressives are doing that). But Democrats don’t mind incinerating their environmental principles in the process.” – The Editorial Board, WSJ. From...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/washington-state-tesla-tax-elon-musk-electric-vehicles-4441b8e2?mod=opinion_lead_pos3
HARVARD AND CIVIL RIGHTS (WSJ – Letters)
“Harvard admits that it has had severe issues with anti-Jewish and anti-Israeli harassment, and though it settled with one group of Jewish plaintiffs, it remains locked in litigation with others. It is likewise under Education Department investigation for failing to handle discrimination adequately...It is absurd to suggest that federal civil-rights enforcement is a violation of academic freedom [as they are claiming]. That’s an argument against civil-rights law, not heroic defiance of an overweening government.” – Tal Fortgang, WSL letters.
LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (Conference Board)
“The US LEI for March pointed to slowing economic activity ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “March’s decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements: 1) consumer expectations dropped further, 2) stock prices recorded their largest monthly decline since September 2022, and 3) new orders in manufacturing softened. That said, the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start. Still, the Conference Board downwardly revised our US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%...” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
“The bottoming process continues. And yes, this is a
process. Last week, I showed other similar crashes and how they played out
going forward. Unless the Fed dramatically pivots, this bottom will evolve over
the next 4-7 weeks with high volatility and lots of ups and downs. Absolutely
do not be surprised if the April lows are breached in May.” – Paul Schatz,
President Heritage Capital. Full Blog at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/markets-cranky-to-start-new-week/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 fell about 2.4% to 5158.
-VIX rose about 14% to 33.82.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.417% (compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
NONE
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined, and remained bearish at -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – a bullish sign, but it has flipped a few times during this pullback.
At one point today, 90% of the volume was down volume,
but markets improved in the last hour of trading negating that bear signal.
The “Death Cross” remains on the S&P 500 – the 50-day
moving average has dropped below its 200-dMA. Markets are already in bad shape
so the “Death Cross” may not be important.
Katie Stockton, Founder and Managing Partner of
Fairlead Strategies, was on CNBC this afternoon. Her firm is a research firm and investment
advisor and she discussed the current S&P 500 charts. She pointed out that the S&P 500 closed
at long term support levels today (Monday) and that is a critical level. If this level doesn’t hold, she expects
further significant declines. I am not sure that I agree with her analysis.
The S&P 500 is 16% below its all-time-high, and about
3.5% above the correction-low. As I have been writing for a while, the most
likely direction for the markets is to retest the prior correction low of 4983.
That retest could be successful leading to a market move higher, but we won’t know
until we do see a retest.
I wrote last month that markets were in a “waterfall phase”
indicated by the steep, straight-down decline with little or no relief that
started 2 April. That stopped after only a few days and markets bounced when
Trump modified and postponed his tariffs. These bounces usually fail and are
followed by a retest of the lows. Timing
of that retest varies. The max decline so far is about 19%. In 2011, the
S&P 500 retested its low in about 40-days after a 19% decline. There have been 10% corrections that retested
in about 30-days. These suggest that the correction might be resolved in
Mid-May. We’ll see...
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, leaning bearish, in a wait-and-see mode. I expect a retest of the prior low.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
Only IEFA has positive momentum; IEFA is #1; XLU is #2; ITA is #3.
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in
stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am
confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
My cmt: Same to you Donald. Thanks for the uplifting Easter comments.
“Washington state progressives haven’t found a tax they don’t want to impose, and behold the bell-ringer: a tax specifically designed to siphon Elon Musk’s profit from their own environmental regulations. This is a tale of policy contortions only today’s climate left could create... The only thing progressives hate more than global warming these days is the prospect of enriching Elon Musk. So after years of trying to force the country to buy electric vehicles, they’re now planning to punish the company producing them. Two companion bills filed by Olympia Democrats would tax the EV credits that Mr. Musk is poised to cash in on at 10% of the credit price... Democrats are seeking every avenue to hurt Mr. Musk short of setting Teslas on fire (and some progressives are doing that). But Democrats don’t mind incinerating their environmental principles in the process.” – The Editorial Board, WSJ. From...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/washington-state-tesla-tax-elon-musk-electric-vehicles-4441b8e2?mod=opinion_lead_pos3
“Harvard admits that it has had severe issues with anti-Jewish and anti-Israeli harassment, and though it settled with one group of Jewish plaintiffs, it remains locked in litigation with others. It is likewise under Education Department investigation for failing to handle discrimination adequately...It is absurd to suggest that federal civil-rights enforcement is a violation of academic freedom [as they are claiming]. That’s an argument against civil-rights law, not heroic defiance of an overweening government.” – Tal Fortgang, WSL letters.
“The US LEI for March pointed to slowing economic activity ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “March’s decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements: 1) consumer expectations dropped further, 2) stock prices recorded their largest monthly decline since September 2022, and 3) new orders in manufacturing softened. That said, the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start. Still, the Conference Board downwardly revised our US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%...” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/markets-cranky-to-start-new-week/
-Monday the S&P 500 fell about 2.4% to 5158.
-VIX rose about 14% to 33.82.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.417% (compared to about this time prior market day).
NONE
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined, and remained bearish at -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – a bullish sign, but it has flipped a few times during this pullback.
I am neutral, leaning bearish, in a wait-and-see mode. I expect a retest of the prior low.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
Only IEFA has positive momentum; IEFA is #1; XLU is #2; ITA is #3.
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
