Housing ... Jobless Claims ... Philly Fed ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
NYSE is closed for Good Friday. Happy Easter and Happy Passover.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Tariffs on generic drugs will cause companies to stop making them.” - Scott Gottlieb, Former FDA Commissioner.
 
“...Preservation of Capital is still #1... Judging from price action, we are witnessing a turn away from US assets.” – Goldman Sachs, Tony Pasquariello note, 14 April.
 
HOUSING STARTS (WSJ)
“Housing starts, a measure of home construction, dropped 11.4% in March from February, according to new Census Bureau data. That marked the steepest plunge in a year.” Story at... 
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/slumping-housing-starts-builder-earnings-signal-soft-new-home-market-bffb99ea
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“Jobless claim applications fell by 9,000 to 215,000 for the week ending April 12, the Labor Department said Thursday.” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-jobless-benefit-claims-fall-week-labor-market-120902480
 
PHILLY FED (Investing.com)
“The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, a key indicator of the health of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region, has posted a significant drop, according to the latest data. The actual number came in at -26.4, a stark contrast to the forecasted figure of 2.2... While the index can be subject to fluctuations, the severity of this drop is noteworthy. It serves as a stark reminder of the unpredictability of economic conditions” Story at... 
https://m.ng.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/philadelphia-fed-manufacturing-index-plunges-signaling-worsening-conditions-93CH-1870706?ampMode=1
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 5283.
-VIX declined about 9% to 29.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.333% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
NONE
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:

Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved significantly, but remained bearish at -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators) - the 10-dMA of the spread reversed higher – a bullish sign, but it has flipped a few times during this pullback. 
 
The “Death Cross” remains on the S&P 500 – the 50-day moving average has dropped below its 200-dMA. Markets are already in bad shape so the “Death Cross” may not be important.
 
Markets continue to be confused by cross-currents. Today’s Philly Fed numbers were bad. United Health reported weak numbers, a warning for the health companies. Nvidia was hit hard by Trump exports restrictions (down another three percent today); but as I look at the indicators, they seems to suggests that markets want to go higher.  
 
If I had to guess, I suspect that markets may go higher and then flatten out as they wait and see how the Tariffs fall out. The other option is that markets hold in this territory until tariff effects are better understood. If we can get a retest of the prior low, then we might have a better answer. For now, it’s wait and see.  
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, leaning bearish, in a wait-and-see mode.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
Only IEFA has positive momentum; IEFA is #1; ITA is #2; XLU is #3.
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.