“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“The American podcaster Darryl Cooper—who has never written a history book, let alone one about World War II, but whom Tucker Carlson calls “America’s most honest historian”—has claimed that it was Churchill’s fault that the war escalated from the limited one that Adolf Hitler apparently wanted when he invaded Poland in September 1939. According to Cooper, Churchill was the “chief villain” of World War II, rather than any of the more obvious suspects.
... “The reason I resent Churchill so much for it,” Cooper told Carlson, “is that he kept this war going when he had no way [of winning]. He had no way to go back and fight this war. All he had was bombers…just rank terrorism.” More than that, once Hitler ripped up yet another treaty and invaded Russia in June of 1941, Churchill immediately made common cause with Stalin against Nazi Germany.
... Neutrality in the face of Hitler would have meant that the 5,000 aircraft and 7,000 tanks and 51 million pairs of boots and the rest of the aid that Britain and America sent the U.S.S.R. would not have materialized. Nor would the invasion of Normandy have taken place while the Russians and Germans were fighting in Belarus.
Which leads to the obvious: With either Hitler or Stalin controlling all of Europe between Paris and Minsk, the world—including America—would have been in a vastly worse place than the one that Churchill and Roosevelt helped to fashion in 1945.” - Andrew Roberts, member of the House of Lords and author of “Churchill: Walking with Destiny.” Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/politics/why-the-far-right-hates-churchill-20fdc710
“President Trump views tariffs as a toll that he alone gets to set for access to U.S. markets. Now he’s charging fees on U.S. companies for the purported privilege of exporting artificial-intelligence chips to China. Mark this as another step toward government control of private business.” – The Editorial Board, WSJ. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/now-trump-wants-an-export-tax-4141f9a8?mod=opinion_lead_pos2
“President Donald Trump has signed an executive order that will prevent high U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from snapping back into effect for another 90 days, a White House official told CNBC.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/11/trump-china-tariffs-deadline-extended.html
“A question looms over Wall Street as it digests the stock market highs in the dog days of summer 2025: Is this another version of the dotcom bubble? Apollo’s Torsten Slok has already calculated that the top 10 S&P 500 companies today are more overvalued than in the late ’90s tech boom. Now the investment bank Stifel is predicting that even as “euphoric markets party like it’s 1999,” a stock market correction and stagflation are ahead. Stifel’s strategists, led by Barry Bannister and Thomas Carroll, wrote in a research note that they are simply “uncomfortable” with the S&P 500 gaining 32% off its April 7 intraday low as the latest GDP figures show the actual economy slowing almost to a crawl. They further warn that “hopium” is a powerful drug and that stock markets may be “whistling past the graveyard.” Story at...
America’s massive ‘money illusion’ is setting the S&P 500 up for a correction as stagflation takes hold, top analysts say
..."core" inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% over the past month, surpassing June's 0.2% uptick and marking the largest gain in six months. Annual core prices rose 3.1% in July, up from June’s 2.9% year-over-year increase... On a headline basis, CPI increased 2.7% on an annual basis in July, matching June's number and slower than economists' expectations of a 2.8% rise. Month over month, prices rose 0.2% compared to June's 0.3%...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cpi-report-core-inflation-rises-by-most-in-six-months-stoking-tariff-driven-price-concerns-153654897.html
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 6446.
-VIX fell about 9% to 14.73.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.289% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators drastically improved from -8 to +15 (15 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread reversed higher too – a bullish sign. It is rare to see such a large reversal of indicators. There were none this large over the last year as shown in the above chart. It is bullish, but worrying, since this much bullish action may be too much.
-Bollinger Bands were signaling overbought today.
-Today, Tuesday, was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. Tops almost always occur on Statistically-significant, up-days, but not all statistically-significant, up-days occur at tops. Today could be a short-term top, but there was only one top-indicator that was bearish (Bollinger Bands) and that’s not enough to signal a top.
I’m cautiously bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
