Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3 million barrels from the previous week. At 423.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 6345.
-VIX declined about 6% to 16.77.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.232% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to a bearish -15 (15 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued falling – a bearish sign.
 
Indicators continued down and that’s not a good sign for the markets. We often see the S&P 500 breakdown when the 10-dMA of the Indicator Spread drops below zero. That occurred today as the spread fell to -1.3.
 
I won’t change my invested position unless indicators reverse higher; now they are headed in the wrong direction.
 
Indicators suggested a correction greater than 10% when the S&P 500 made its all-time high a week ago. Unless there is a recession, a correction of 20% or more is not likely. 
 
I can’t be bullish with indicators looking as weak as they do now, even though markets moved significantly higher today. If we do see a correction, and of course there is no guarantee we will, some levels of support follow: The S&P 500 was 3% above the 50-dMA and 7.4% above the 200-dMA.
 
 
BOTTOM LINE
Until proven otherwise, I’m bearish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.