Sentiment ... Retail Sales ... NY Fed Manufacturing ... Industrial Production ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
UNIV OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Yahoo Finance)
“Consumer sentiment soured in August for the first time in four months as Americans grew antsy about where inflation is headed. The latest University of Michigan consumer survey released Friday showed year-ahead inflation expectations soared to 4.9% in August... Overall, sentiment dropped 5% month over month...” Press release at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-sentiment-falls-for-first-time-in-4-months-as-inflation-expectations-surge-153854009.html
 
RETAIL SALES (Investopedia)
“July retail sales were $726.3 billion, a 0.5% increase from the prior month... “The solid increase in retail sales in July and upward revisions to past months indicate consumers are down but not out this year,” wrote Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.” Story at...
https://www.investopedia.com/retail-sales-july-11791688
 
NY FED MANUFACTURING (RTT News)
“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report on Friday showing regional manufacturing activity unexpectedly grew at a faster rate in the month of August... its general business conditions index climbed to 11.9 in August from 5.5 in July...” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3566590/new-york-manufacturing-index-unexpectedly-climbs-to-nine-month-high-in-august.aspx
 
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Yahoo Finance, Canada)
“U.S. factory production was unchanged in July suggesting manufacturing activity was stalling as businesses navigate higher costs from import tariffs.” Story at...
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-manufacturing-production-stalls-july-142859264.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 6450.
-VIX rose about 2% to 15.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.322% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +18 to +16 (16 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread is rising too – a bullish sign.
 
News was mixed today, but I just can’t seem to get over the bad PPI numbers earlier this week. I still haven’t increased my stock positions.
 
Friday there was massive unchanged-volume. As I’ve often said (too many times I’m sure), many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? Maybe, but that not what indicators are suggesting. Perhaps the best we can say is that investors are confused. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
 
I‘m still dragging my feet regarding buying more stocks. I won’t go all-in, since I suspect we’ll get a better buying point before the new-year, but on the other hand, that’s what I think. We need to trade what we see and the indicators are suggesting the markets go higher. 
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish. My only concern: Indicators are now so bullish it’s scary.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.