Monday, August 11, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
MEDICAL JOURNAL REJECTS KENNEDY (Reuters)
“An influential U.S. medical journal is rejecting a call from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to retract a large Danish study that found that aluminum ingredients in vaccines do not increase health risks for children, the journal's editor told Reuters. Kennedy has long promoted doubts about vaccines' safety...he has been considering whether to initiate a review of shots that contain aluminum, which he says are linked to autoimmune diseases and allergies. The study, which was funded by the Danish government and published in July in the Annals of Internal Medicine, analyzed nationwide registry data for more than 1.2 million children over more than two decades. It did not find evidence that exposure to aluminum in vaccines had caused an increased risk for autoimmune, atopic or allergic, or neurodevelopmental disorders.” Story at...
Exclusive-Medical journal rejects Kennedy's call for retraction of vaccine study
My cmt: Kennedy...probably Trump’s worst appointment.
 
From...
https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/michael-ramirez/cartoon-unnecessary-barriers-3404212/?utm_campaign=widget&utm_medium=latest&utm_source=post_3410823&utm_term=CARTOON%3A%20Unnecessary%20barriers
 
WSJ LETTERS (WSJ)
“Greg Ip’s analysis of President Trump’s trade war “victory” rests on a fundamental economic misunderstanding (“Deal or No Deal, Trump Wins on Trade,” U.S. News, July 16). Mr. Ip writes that the president has succeeded because others are paying for access to the U.S. market, citing $27 billion in June customs revenue. Yet tariffs are paid by U.S. importing companies to the Treasury, not foreign exporters. That $27 billion didn’t come from Chinese or European governments—it came from American businesses. These costs are then passed on to American consumers through higher prices, as is evidenced by the most recent inflation reports. This means Americans, not foreigners, are paying for these tariffs twice: first through corporate tariff payments, then through elevated consumer prices. Mr. Trump may define this as “winning,” but it’s Americans who are bearing the financial burden of his trade policies.” - Prof. Nicholas B. Creel, Georgia College & State University, letter to editor, WSJ.
 
“As the Trump trade policy reverberates around the globe, what was once the world’s most admired nation is becoming a pariah state. Instead of being seen as a generous and well-intentioned country that other nations should follow, we have morphed into an angry and often hostile nation that walks away from treaties and bullies its friends. Ask Brazil, Canada—even Greenland.- Mr. Alan S. Blinder, Professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton; Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, 1994-96.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trumps-liberation-day-ii-bombs-at-the-box-office-318c912d?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAhPnT2Oe47L9QbInzgISyv-b1EYJkxonavgI9eoIgYHvUZ6LoIlWSPECECuwDI%3D&gaa_ts=68981197&gaa_sig=vpyPt7G-3q7Cw8XSynTAGfHXtBX5w8qUdGwrC87eVoOy24JBWxldGJEeYbEGqhq4LCHuAvCoKkTZAPXdAXhgJA%3D%3D
 
ALREADY IN RECESSION? (Fortune)
“...employment is declining in many industries. In the past, if more than half the ≈400 industries in the payroll survey were shedding jobs, we were in a recession,” he added. “In July, over 53% of industries were cutting jobs, and only healthcare was adding meaningfully to payrolls.” – Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics.
More than half of industries are already shedding workers, a ‘telling’ sign that’s accompanied past recessions, top economist says
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 6373.
-VIX rose about 7% to 16.25.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.279% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved slightly to -8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued falling – a bearish sign.
 
Monday there was Xtreme high, unchanged-volume. I know; you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are trending down now. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
 
Thursday there was another Hindenburg Omen.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct either; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. The last one was 7-trading-sessions ago, so not a cluster yet.
 
The Fosback Hi/Low Logic Index uses an analysis method similar to the Hindenburg Omen. The Fosback Index is not currently bearish, however, it is closer to bearish than bullish.   
 
Breadth (issues advancing on the NYSE) remains stubbornly bearish measured on a 10-day basis. The 50-day, 100-day and 150-day values have not declined much, if any, so Breadth is a bit of mixed message.
 
S&P 500 is up 2.1% since I cut stock holdings on the big down-day last week. I don’t like that, but indicators are still bearish, so I won’t be adding to stocks until indicators improve.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Until proven otherwise, I’m bearish. (Trade what you see; not what you think.)
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL.
(My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 
My current invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.