“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“An influential U.S. medical journal is rejecting a call from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to retract a large Danish study that found that aluminum ingredients in vaccines do not increase health risks for children, the journal's editor told Reuters. Kennedy has long promoted doubts about vaccines' safety...he has been considering whether to initiate a review of shots that contain aluminum, which he says are linked to autoimmune diseases and allergies. The study, which was funded by the Danish government and published in July in the Annals of Internal Medicine, analyzed nationwide registry data for more than 1.2 million children over more than two decades. It did not find evidence that exposure to aluminum in vaccines had caused an increased risk for autoimmune, atopic or allergic, or neurodevelopmental disorders.” Story at...
Exclusive-Medical journal rejects Kennedy's call for retraction of vaccine study
My cmt: Kennedy...probably Trump’s worst appointment.
https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/michael-ramirez/cartoon-unnecessary-barriers-3404212/?utm_campaign=widget&utm_medium=latest&utm_source=post_3410823&utm_term=CARTOON%3A%20Unnecessary%20barriers
“Greg Ip’s analysis of President Trump’s trade war “victory” rests on a fundamental economic misunderstanding (“Deal or No Deal, Trump Wins on Trade,” U.S. News, July 16). Mr. Ip writes that the president has succeeded because others are paying for access to the U.S. market, citing $27 billion in June customs revenue. Yet tariffs are paid by U.S. importing companies to the Treasury, not foreign exporters. That $27 billion didn’t come from Chinese or European governments—it came from American businesses. These costs are then passed on to American consumers through higher prices, as is evidenced by the most recent inflation reports. This means Americans, not foreigners, are paying for these tariffs twice: first through corporate tariff payments, then through elevated consumer prices. Mr. Trump may define this as “winning,” but it’s Americans who are bearing the financial burden of his trade policies.” - Prof. Nicholas B. Creel, Georgia College & State University, letter to editor, WSJ.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trumps-liberation-day-ii-bombs-at-the-box-office-318c912d?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAhPnT2Oe47L9QbInzgISyv-b1EYJkxonavgI9eoIgYHvUZ6LoIlWSPECECuwDI%3D&gaa_ts=68981197&gaa_sig=vpyPt7G-3q7Cw8XSynTAGfHXtBX5w8qUdGwrC87eVoOy24JBWxldGJEeYbEGqhq4LCHuAvCoKkTZAPXdAXhgJA%3D%3D
“...employment is declining in many industries. In the past, if more than half the ≈400 industries in the payroll survey were shedding jobs, we were in a recession,” he added. “In July, over 53% of industries were cutting jobs, and only healthcare was adding meaningfully to payrolls.” – Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics.
More than half of industries are already shedding workers, a ‘telling’ sign that’s accompanied past recessions, top economist says
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 6373.
-VIX rose about 7% to 16.25.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.279% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved slightly to -8 (8 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued falling – a bearish sign.
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are trending down now. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct either; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. The last one was 7-trading-sessions ago, so not a cluster yet.
Until proven otherwise, I’m bearish. (Trade what you see; not what you think.)
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
