Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
“Although some tension between the coordinate branches of
government is a hallmark of our constitutional system, this concerted effort by
the Executive to smear and impugn individual judges who rule against it is both
unprecedented and unfortunate... One branch’s alleged infringement on another’s
exclusive power does not license a constitutional free-for-all.” - U.S.
District Judge Thomas Cullen, a Trump nominee, writing in a decision against
the Trump Administration.
“Increased vehicle efficiency has offset increased
driving activity, measured as vehicle
miles traveled (VMT). U.S. VMT reached an all-time high in 2024, at
9.0 billion miles per day, which was higher than the 2016–19 average of 8.8
billion VMT/d. However, increased fuel efficiency and electrification of the
vehicle fleet has resulted in less gasoline consumption despite increased
driving activity... In 2024, data from the Bureau of
Transportation Statistics indicate the number of passengers and
the available
seat miles, a measure of aircraft carrying capacity, both increased from
2019, although the total number of flights decreased. Efficiency gains
and changing flight patterns, among other factors, have contributed to jet
fuel consumption remaining slightly lower than pre-pandemic levels.” From...
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66005
My cmt: Interesting, but not market moving. If EIA is correct,
the slowdown in fuel use is not related to declines in economic activity.
CRUDE INVENTORY (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.4 million barrels from the
previous week. At 418.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
6% below the five-year average for this time of year.” Press release at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 6466.
-VIX rose about 2% to 14.62.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.238%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +13 to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and is still giving
a Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of
the spread reversed down – a bearish sign.
On Wednesday there was a new all-time high for the
S&P 500. At all-time highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we
look at New, 52-week highs, we see that around 5% of issues on the NYSE made
new 52-week highs today. That number is
ok, but below the 5-year average of about 7%. 51% of issues on the NYSE have
been up over the last 2-weeks. The take-away here is that breadth is not
sending a warning signal although we’d like to see it higher.
One signal that we rarely see is the Fosback, 10-dMA
Hi/Lo Logic Index. It is close to
issuing a buy-signal, although it is not there yet. The 5-day version of this
indicator is already bullish.
All of the ETFs that I track and chart for momentum
purposes are once again above their respective 120-dMAs and that is a bearish signal. That warning is a good one but declines
following the signal are often small.
NVIDIA reported earnings today.
“Nvidia reported $46.7 billion in revenue for
Q2 2026, beating expectations despite a 2% drop in shares
post-earnings due to concerns over data center revenue. The company's strong
forecast of $54 billion for Q3 highlights continued demand for AI
chips, although uncertainty in China remains a concern.” From...
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/
Not great, but perhaps good enough so we won’t see too
much market reaction tomorrow.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
