... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

Political commentary from Michael Ramirez at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
LOOKING FOR MORE DOWNSIDE – EXCERPT (Heritage Capital)
“I still think there should be more downside this quarter, but I am certainly not going to die on that hill. In a perfect world, the bounce ends this week and then we see a move below last week’s low. All in all, the markets behave well. The 2-5% Q3 pullback looks to be shaping up. It is buyable. There are just too many investors still sitting on the outside wishing they were inside. All those people who panic sold during the tariff tantrum in April. And while it’s only early August, the longer the stock market goes without a meaningful pullback, the more likely a performance chase will ensue in Q4.” Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Commentary at... 
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/looking-for-more-downside/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6389.
-VIX declined about 9% to 15.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.285% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread continued falling – a bearish sign.
 
Breadth (issues advancing on the NYSE) remains stubbornly bearish measured on a 10-day basis. The 50-day, 100-day and 150-day values have not declined much, if any, so Breadth is a bit of mixed message.
 
Indicators suggested a correction greater than 10% when the S&P 500 made its all-time high a week ago. Today, Friday, the S&P 500 came within a half-point of its prior high – that’s close enough.  Today, new-highs were high enough to avoid sending a “correction indicator,” but not as high as we’d like them. Still, I am taking my >10% correction call off the table for the time being. If the index makes new highs, I’ll continue to watch breadth measures at the top – they are important since they provide a clue regarding how far a correction may fall. For now, indicators are still suggesting a pullback, but just not as far as we previously expected. Maybe the pullback is mostly over.
 
S&P 500 is up 2.5% since I cut stock holdings on the big down-day last week. I don’t like that, but indicators are still bearish, so I won’t be adding to stocks now.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Until proven otherwise, I’m bearish. (Trade what you see; not what you think.)
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.